Hannah Barnes

speaker

509 appearances 22 recordings 1 series first heard Mar 2011 last heard Oct 2013

Hannah Barnes’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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More or Less · Climate Refugees · 7 May 2011 podcast

For example, it was used in the Stern Report here in the UK, which said there would be 200 million refugees worldwide by the middle of the century. matched

Yeah, it comes from two pieces of work by an Oxford-based scientist called Norman Myers. matched

One is a lengthy paper in 1995 and then a shorter speech given in 2005. matched

And it seems to have been accepted without question by several influential bodies, even though some academics expressed doubt about the numbers right from the start. matched

Stephen Castle's matched

is Associate Director of the International Migration Institute at Oxford University. matched

And he says the 50 million figure should never have been taken seriously. matched

Well, I asked him just that. matched

But he was using your numbers. matched

I mean, your numbers have been picked up by some very high-profile bodies, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and UN agencies, governments, and they've said that that 50 million figure is wrong now. matched

Do you accept that it's wrong? matched

But if you can't prove that there are then we shouldn't be making the statement should we? matched

We can't prove it. matched

Great word. matched

But to be fair to Norman Myers, he does make it clear in his research that not everyone he classes as an environmental refugee will flee their country. matched

He just says that they'll be forced to move and that could well be internally. matched

Yeah. matched

Well, here's Stephen Castles again. matched

Has a more reliable number on people who are migrating, has that materialised from these studies? matched

But that's tens of thousands, not tens of millions. matched

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