Heather Duplessy-Allen

I reckon if opportunity plays this right, they may actually do it.

They've got a good chance.

Yesterday's Roy Morgan poll had them at 6%.

Now, I don't know how much stock I put in that poll yesterday.

It was really volatile.

National went up 5%.

Labour went down 7.5%.

And I think swings that big have got to be questioned because they just don't seem credible.

But this is now a trend for opportunity.

They are now sitting close to, or in this case, above five in multiple polls.

And knocking off 5% is the one thing they really have to do because this is the biggest hurdle for a small party trying to get in from the outside.

Voters do not want to vote for a party if they don't think it's going to make it in.

It's a weird part of our voter psyche that makes no sense, the wasted vote thing.

But it's not a concern for opportunity at this stage.

It might not matter if they can keep polling this high.

Now, I reckon what's going on here is they are benefiting from the same thing that New Zealand First is benefiting from at the moment, which is voter frustration.

Same with Pauline Hansel, Nigel Farage, Donald Trump.

Voters are so frustrated by regular politicians ignoring them and their concerns for decades now that they just want to blow things up.

They'll vote for whoever they think is going to blow it up.

Break up the supermarket duopoly, break up the gen tailors, buy back BNZ, stop the immigration, whatever the idea.