Henry Ellenbogen
speaker
1,069 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Dec 2025
last heard 16 Dec
Henry Ellenbogen’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Dec 2025 with 1.
Appearances
And we start from the view that these are exceptionally talented people who are actually very good at what they do and are high quality people.
But what we have said is, what do they do?
And what is the limitation?
And one of the limitations is if you work at a firm that deeply measures your risk every day, and then if you have a bad period of time measured by a month, but certainly three months, you get your capital cut back, there's a good chance you get let go.
It probably means you can't have a time horizon longer than your career horizon.
What we also have noticed, because we not only understand things anecdotally, we also study them.
If you look at the last public market earnings season, which was companies reporting Q2 this past year, if you study earnings volatility,
It was more volatile than any earnings season since the financial crisis.
Even though during the financial crisis, as we all know, the fundamental banking system in the U.S.
was under question, which meant the economy and the markets, as we know it, really had a wide dispersion of opportunity.
And the markets tend to be a lot more volatile when they're making lows and making highs.
And yet...
This was the most volatile earnings season.
I think the reason for that is just basically the fact that we estimate somewhere between 80 and 90% of the institutional flow is driven either by the firms that have one month and three month in agency or the quants that have to take these price signals into account.
And then their models are optimized for this.
And so what we have set at Durable is really simple.
Let's go do less so we can do more.
Because if we're gonna accept volatility in stocks, we have to really understand the business and the people like we do at Colliers such that
If Collier's is down because people are worried about commercial brokerage because of interest rates, actually the markets are probably right.
They're probably right 90% of the time.
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