Henry Ellenbogen
speaker
1,069 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Dec 2025
last heard 16 Dec
Henry Ellenbogen’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Dec 2025 with 1.
Appearances
And because machines are iterating with machines and it's being powered by general purpose models, not by specific purpose models,
This is riding a curve that is definitely geometric.
And so back to this mental model of Amazon that drives so much of what we think about durability.
What Amazon was able to do is ride a cost curve where they were deflating the cost of sending a box out at 3% to 5%.
a year for 20 straight years.
And the people who did not leverage the right distribution infrastructure, the right investment in robotics at that time, they bought Kiva, the right ML models when they came into play about how to basically plan inventory and deal with suppliers actually were probably at a curve that probably inflated at three to 5%, but at best were flat.
And that differential in a low margin business, you compound it over five years.
Honestly, that's all you need to know.
And that's, I think, what we're starting to get our heads around at Durable, which is if in many areas, robotics is at parity.
Now, there's a lot of data that says it's lower cost in certain cases.
And the use cases are about to go up.
And the cost on the existing use cases probably don't go down at 3% to 5% at this point in the curve because of the scale brought in, the human capital brought in, the IP bought on, and the fact that you're going to be able to use these general purpose LLMs to power it.
It probably goes down at more like 15% to 20%.
But maybe it's Moore's law and it goes down even faster.
Well, then we wake up in five years and the people who put themselves on one cost curve, if they compete against the people who put themselves on the other cost curve, those could be power law businesses.
What we have thought really hard about is who's going to go benefit from this curve, where their competition, even if they woke up tomorrow,
even if they put the same amount of money into this problem, even if they could hire the same quality of people, which is unlikely, because they have not invested in the distribution infrastructure or the technological infrastructure to compete on this curve, at minimum is probably two to three years behind.
And every day that they wait, they're probably getting further behind.
It's apparent to everyone at Durable why our understanding of change has been great for our investments in Duolingo and Affirm and Shopify.
But actually, I think it's about to be really advantaged, our understanding of people and change as we go invest in the other 70% of the economy.
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