Hussein Ibish

I mean, I think that was the optimistic scenario, but not in 24 hours.

These parties are very far apart from each other.

They have both staked out maximalist demands.

But I always thought that Trump was going to need to send the Iranians a stronger message

that he is prepared to ratchet up pressure in a really meaningful military way.

And this business about blockading the Strait of Hormuz is something I've been wondering why the administration didn't try for weeks now.

It seems such an obvious response, which is that the Iranians say, well, you know, if you're going to bomb us, your friends can't sell their oil, but our customers will still get theirs.

That the American response can be actually, no, you can't sell your oil either.

And, you know, you need the Strait as much as anybody else for import and export.

and let's see how much you like a blockaded straight.

So it's another interesting move here.

Yeah, well, what he can do, of course, is get a naval presence in the region, which interdicts shipping that they don't approve of.

And that's exactly what Iran has threatened to do and has done in the past.

And, you know, they can simply say, look, we're not allowing, we have this whole area under surveillance.

We're not allowing anybody's shipping to pass.

until such time as Iran agrees

to recognise that this is an open international shipping way for maritime commerce open to all.

And once we get that commitment from them again, as we had before the war, then we'll be glad to step back.

Charging this... Their own customers.

Yeah, if people are willing to pay, they've been willing to let them through.