Hussein Ibish

No, I don't.

I don't think so.

The one in Lebanon, he definitely doesn't want to end.

Well, I think he's envisaging a conflict that goes on for...

months if not years, and years if not decades.

So it's going to be hard to prevent him from getting his way unless he loses the coming Israeli election, and there's a very different government with a different attitude, which is possible, or unless the United States starts changing its view of the Lebanese conflict.

Now, one thing that did happen is that at first the Israelis sold the Lebanese conflict

portion of this as a separate conflict, unrelated to the US-Israeli attack on Iran.

And the Trump administration basically said, in which case you have a free reign here, just don't attack the airport and don't attack the port.

And everything else, we leave it up to you.

The Israeli response was to keep bombing Lebanon after the ceasefire began.

And that led to this very tense early

standoff.

And now, apparently, the Israelis have promised Trump that they will lay off Lebanon for a little bit.

We don't know how much and we don't know for how long.

I think it's extremely unlikely, to say the least.

I think the most optimistic scenario is

would be some arrangement whereby more time is bought.

And I think otherwise we will have either emerging by default a stalemated conflict that becomes a grass mowing exercise or a series of ineffective short-term agreements that produce the same result.

I think that's not in anybody's interest and particularly not in the interests of Iran's neighbors, the Gulf Arab countries.