Ian Bremmer

I want to say to begin with that it's at least we are in a more positive position today than we were a week ago. Israel had been moving towards announcing an annexation in the West Bank.

That is not going to happen. The US had been supporting Israel in a plan for Gaza governance that would have led to the removal, voluntary or not, of a large number of Palestinians. That is no longer the plan. There is a plan that has been endorsed by the Gulf states.

by the Europeans, by the United States and at least in principle by most of it, by Israel. And now we're waiting on Hamas. So that by itself is significant progress. Whether or not Hamas is prepared to accept the terms that have been put in front of it,

and whether that is adequate to lead to a ceasefire and a lasting peace, I would say that there is more reason for optimism today than there has been in the last two years, but that is not quite reason for optimism.

There's still lots of things that can and likely will go wrong before we get to yes. So it's progress. I'm extremely happy to see that. But as of right now, we don't yet have a deal.

is that the Gulf States had a summit meeting with President Trump. It was very productive, it was very warm. These are some of the leaders that he is personally closest to, and Jared and his family members, most trusted advisers like Steve Witkoff, are closest to. They are politically very aligned in the near and medium term.

Se liittyi todelliseen edistämiseen. Se liittyi edistämiseen Trumpin yllättymistä, jopa rauhallisuudesta, israelilaisen päätöksentekoon liittyvään haastatteluun Hamasin poliittisten johtajien kanssa, kun he olivat Katarissa, Yhdysvalloissa.

It led to an agreement, this plan that was announced between the US and Israel in the Oval Office that Netanyahu accepted almost all of with a lot of pressure from the United States. So the first thing that's happening behind the scenes is that Trump's alignment with the Gulf

and his effort to ensure that there are strong and durable relations, even as things have happened that they really don't like on the ground in Gaza, in Qatar, more broadly.

That is very real. We'll remember the first trip that Trump made as president when he was first elected back in 2016 and he was there in 2017, was to Saudi Arabia when all of the Gulf leaders came together and he touched the orb and the whole thing. We shouldn't forget that. Those relations are still among his strongest globally, and that has helped significantly

in getting towards an agreement to end the war in Gaza. Secondly, Trump has a lot of leverage

Israelille. Ja niin edelleen hän on ollut hyvin rauhoittunut käyttämään sitä. Trump on toimittanut hyvin yksilöllisesti, kun muistat, että Trump liittyy suoraan bilateraalisiin sijoituksiin Iranien kanssa. Hän ei pyytänyt Israelin mahdollisuutta tehdä sitä. Hän ei koordinoinut sitä edelleen Israelin kanssa. Hän liittyy suoraan sijoituksiin Hamasin kanssa, jotta saadaan amerikkalaisen haastattelijan ulos, joka ei ollut

coordinated in advance with Israel. So Trump has been very happy to act unilaterally on issues that the Israelis have a very significant stake in.

Netanyahu has also acted unilaterally on many occasions in strikes that the Israelis have taken against Iran, for example, against Hamas in Qatar that I already mentioned, for example, other places. But that unilateralism by the Israeli prime minister has not led to meaningful consequences from the United States until now.

viime viikkoja. Trumpin vahvistus käyttää sitä vahvistusta, jotta israelilaiset pystyisivät epäilemään Qatarin emeeriin, ja voimme puhua siitä, mitä siinä tapahtui, jotta israelilaiset pystyisivät

20 point plan that they made some changes on, but then Trump made some changes back on them, essentially. We can talk about that too. That is deployment of American leverage against Israel to get the Israelis to yes, in a similar way that Trump forced Zelenskyy.

to get to yes on the critical minerals deal, when he showed that he was willing to actually suspend intelligence sharing. Trump had the cards. Zelensky did not. Trump has the cards. Netanyahu does not. And if Trump is willing to deploy that leverage, then Bibi really needs Trump for his ongoing elections and his political support, not to mention his national security, in a way that Trump doesn't actually need Bibi.

Even though Trump is very personally aligned towards Israel. And that matters and we're seeing that play out. So that's really, I think the behind the scenes has been about that. It's been about the U.S. Gulf relationship. It's been about the U.S.-Israel and particularly the U.S.-not-Yahoo relationship. So then there are plenty of talks happening now. What are the next steps for this peace process? Who needs to be brought in, where, by whom and how?

Well, there are talks, you and I are talking right now on Monday, and there are talks going on right now in Egypt between the United States and Israel and Hamas, right? And, I mean, these talks...

Intermediate right by the Egyptians, by others are extremely important. And frankly, by the time this airs, we're going to have more information about how successful they've been. But I mean, we have to get from the 20 point plan that Israel said yes to.