October 7 marks the second anniversary of Hamas' horrific attack on Israel — and Israel's devastating response. Political scientist Ian Bremmer unravels the intricate dynamics of President Trump's ambitious peace plan, the stark realities facing Gaza, how Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is navigating this moment and whether a genuine path to peace is possible. (This interview, hosted by TED’s Helen Walters, was recorded on October 6, 2025.)TED Talks Daily is nominated for the Signal Award for Best Conversation Starter Podcast. Vote here!Interested in learning more about upcoming TED events? Follow these links:TEDNext: ted.com/futureyouTEDAI Vienna: ted.com/ai-viennaTEDAI San Francisco: ted.com/ai-sf Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Tiesitkö, että joka neljäs yli 40-vuotias mies kokee virtsan karkailua? Se on todella yleistä, mutta siitä ei silti juuri puhuta. Tenamen suojat on suunniteltu erityisesti miehille. Huomaamattomat, varmat ja luotettavat. Ota tilanne haltuun Tenamenin avulla.
Chapter 2: What is the significance of the two-year anniversary of Hamas' attack on Israel?
You're listening to TED Talks Daily, where we bring you new ideas to spark your curiosity every day. I'm your host, Elise Hu. October 7th marks the two-year anniversary of the attacks by Hamas on Israel and the beginning of a bloody conflict that has devastated the region. What might happen next?
Poliitikko-scientisti Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, sits down with TED's head of media and curation, Helen Walters, to discuss the state of the region and why he believes this moment could be a turning point in the war.
Hello everyone, welcome to another episode of TED explains the world with geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer. I'm Helen Walters from TED. Today is October the 6th, 2025 and this week sees the second anniversary of Hamas's horrific attack on Israel and Israel's devastating response.
Last week President Trump of the United States announced a 20-point plan to end the conflict, a deal that was accepted by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and Hamas has also said that it accepts parts of the ceasefire and hostage release plan and is ready to negotiate the rest. So the question on everyone's minds, might this actually be a turning point towards peace? So Ian, let's bring you in, let's get right to it. What do you think are the chances that this works?
Chapter 3: How does Ian Bremmer assess the current state of the Gaza conflict?
I want to say to begin with that it's at least we are in a more positive position today than we were a week ago. Israel had been moving towards announcing an annexation in the West Bank.
That is not going to happen. The US had been supporting Israel in a plan for Gaza governance that would have led to the removal, voluntary or not, of a large number of Palestinians. That is no longer the plan. There is a plan that has been endorsed by the Gulf states.
by the Europeans, by the United States and at least in principle by most of it, by Israel. And now we're waiting on Hamas. So that by itself is significant progress. Whether or not Hamas is prepared to accept the terms that have been put in front of it,
and whether that is adequate to lead to a ceasefire and a lasting peace, I would say that there is more reason for optimism today than there has been in the last two years, but that is not quite reason for optimism. There's still lots of things that can and likely will go wrong before we get to yes. So it's progress. I'm extremely happy to see that. But as of right now, we don't yet have a deal.
Chapter 4: What are the key components of Trump's 20-point peace plan?
So obviously there is so much going on behind the scenes at the moment. And I just wonder if you might let us in on a little bit of those conversations. What are you hearing? What is happening? Who's talking to whom? And what are the next things that are going to happen? Well, the most important things that have happened
is that the Gulf States had a summit meeting with President Trump. It was very productive, it was very warm. These are some of the leaders that he is personally closest to, and Jared and his family members, most trusted advisers like Steve Witkoff, are closest to. They are politically very aligned in the near and medium term.
Se liittyi todelliseen edistämiseen. Se liittyi edistämiseen Trumpin yllättymistä, jopa rauhallisuudesta, israelilaisen päätöksentekoon liittyvään haastatteluun Hamasin poliittisten johtajien kanssa, kun he olivat Katarissa, Yhdysvalloissa.
It led to an agreement, this plan that was announced between the US and Israel in the Oval Office that Netanyahu accepted almost all of with a lot of pressure from the United States. So the first thing that's happening behind the scenes is that Trump's alignment with the Gulf
and his effort to ensure that there are strong and durable relations, even as things have happened that they really don't like on the ground in Gaza, in Qatar, more broadly.
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Chapter 5: What role do the Gulf States play in the peace negotiations?
That is very real. We'll remember the first trip that Trump made as president when he was first elected back in 2016 and he was there in 2017, was to Saudi Arabia when all of the Gulf leaders came together and he touched the orb and the whole thing. We shouldn't forget that. Those relations are still among his strongest globally, and that has helped significantly
in getting towards an agreement to end the war in Gaza. Secondly, Trump has a lot of leverage
Israelille. Ja niin edelleen hän on ollut hyvin rauhoittunut käyttämään sitä. Trump on toimittanut hyvin yksilöllisesti, kun muistat, että Trump liittyy suoraan bilateraalisiin sijoituksiin Iranien kanssa. Hän ei pyytänyt Israelin mahdollisuutta tehdä sitä. Hän ei koordinoinut sitä edelleen Israelin kanssa. Hän liittyy suoraan sijoituksiin Hamasin kanssa, jotta saadaan amerikkalaisen haastattelijan ulos, joka ei ollut
coordinated in advance with Israel. So Trump has been very happy to act unilaterally on issues that the Israelis have a very significant stake in.
Netanyahu has also acted unilaterally on many occasions in strikes that the Israelis have taken against Iran, for example, against Hamas in Qatar that I already mentioned, for example, other places. But that unilateralism by the Israeli prime minister has not led to meaningful consequences from the United States until now.
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Chapter 6: How is Hamas's acceptance of the peace terms impacting the negotiations?
viime viikkoja. Trumpin vahvistus käyttää sitä vahvistusta, jotta israelilaiset pystyisivät epäilemään Qatarin emeeriin, ja voimme puhua siitä, mitä siinä tapahtui, jotta israelilaiset pystyisivät
20 point plan that they made some changes on, but then Trump made some changes back on them, essentially. We can talk about that too. That is deployment of American leverage against Israel to get the Israelis to yes, in a similar way that Trump forced Zelenskyy.
to get to yes on the critical minerals deal, when he showed that he was willing to actually suspend intelligence sharing. Trump had the cards. Zelensky did not. Trump has the cards. Netanyahu does not. And if Trump is willing to deploy that leverage, then Bibi really needs Trump for his ongoing elections and his political support, not to mention his national security, in a way that Trump doesn't actually need Bibi.
Even though Trump is very personally aligned towards Israel. And that matters and we're seeing that play out. So that's really, I think the behind the scenes has been about that. It's been about the U.S. Gulf relationship. It's been about the U.S.-Israel and particularly the U.S.-not-Yahoo relationship. So then there are plenty of talks happening now. What are the next steps for this peace process? Who needs to be brought in, where, by whom and how?
Well, there are talks, you and I are talking right now on Monday, and there are talks going on right now in Egypt between the United States and Israel and Hamas, right? And, I mean, these talks...
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Chapter 7: What challenges does the peace plan face moving forward?
Intermediate right by the Egyptians, by others are extremely important. And frankly, by the time this airs, we're going to have more information about how successful they've been. But I mean, we have to get from the 20 point plan that Israel said yes to.
to an agreement in principle that Hamas accepted, but was not the same as the Israeli plan, but that Trump immediately said, yes, they want peace. And so Israel, you've got to stop bombing. And Israel in return basically stopped bombing. And now they're sitting down to figure out the places where they say they agree, but they don't quite agree.
There are a lot of details that require the United States to use leverage they have with the Israelis and leverage it's unclear they have against Hamas. Not because Hamas is powerful, they're not, but because Hamas increasingly is acting like a bunch of dead-enders.
jotka eivät ole ymmärrettäviä kokoomukseen, mutta heidän järjestelmänsä on loppu. Heillä on paljon vähemmän vahvaa, mikä tekee heille vaikea päästä loppuun.
Se tekee heitä erittäin vaarallisena, kuten tuntuu, ja tuntuu, että kaikki tämä voisi pysyä läpi. Mutta kuka näet, jos Hamas... Jos Hamas sopii pysyä. Kuka aloittaa palestiinalaisen vallan? Jos Hamas itse asiassa ristiriitaa.
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Chapter 8: What potential outcomes could arise from the current negotiations?
and they will not be a part of any Gaza reconstruction or governance. That is not acceptable to anyone outside Hamas. No one wants that. So if this is going to go forward, Hamas is done.
doesn't mean there won't be radicals that aren't a part of any governance structure that will still have some kind of allegiance or fealty, doesn't mean it won't morph into some other organization that doesn't recognize the right of Israel to exist, but that won't be Palestinian governance on the ground in Gaza.
Palestinian governance is going to morph into, once a ceasefire is agreed to, and that may be soon and it may not be soon, but when it happens, you're going to have a technocratic group that is essentially put in place with approvals of the United States and the Gulf,
It'll be paid for mostly by the Gulf. It'll be administered in the near term, perhaps by Tony Blair acting as a temporary governor who has a lot of support from the United States, from Trump, from Jared Kushner and from the Gulf states, who he has been engaged with at the highest levels. It's been the biggest part of his business for well over a decade now.
And the security will be provided not by Palestinians, but probably by the Egyptians, perhaps by some UN peacekeepers paid for again by the Gulf states. So we're not yet, I mean, this is not a state.
This is a governance model without elections. It's a governance model with Palestinians that are seen to be trusted and capable hands of executing on basic needs for reconstruction that will be funded and with security that is provided by non-Palestinians.
And if that happens, by the way, Helen, that is by far the best possible outcome near term, given what everyone has been through for the last two years. So we all want this. There's a reason why the Europeans, the Brits, the Canadians, the Japanese, the Americans, including a lot of Democrats, the Gulf states, are all saying they support this deal. Because there is no other way forward at this point.
Right, right. For actual progress we need to do something. What Trump announced, if you remember, back when he had the Jordanian king in town months and months ago, which was this making Gaza into a riviera on the Mediterranean and the Palestinians will all leave and the Gulf will build it out. That was never going to happen. It was never going to be accepted. And Trump has completely
shit-canned that plan. And that's really important. It's a skill that Trump has, that his ability, when something that he floats completely fails, his ability frequently to forget that it was ever anything that he even talked about is important and is a component of how we might be getting to yes here. The fact that he had a plan that was completely unworkable, that he was pushing and he has thrown away.
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