Ian Bremmer

They did not open the Strait.

And Trump himself said, OK, I'm not going to do that.

So that's kind of the big news.

Is that finding an off-ramp?

No.

But it certainly is recognition for the first time by Trump that full-on Strait escalation is probably going to cause greater danger for him than he wants to experience, greater backlash.

Look, the Saudis definitely, and I think the Emiratis too, they are increasingly prepared, not just do they want the United States not to stop, but to continue to degrade Iranian capabilities, but they've been having conversations about getting directly involved in the war themselves.

The Saudis involved in the fighting, the UAE, may be taking a couple contested islands between Iran and the UAE.

Both of those things might happen over the coming weeks.

That's different from the UAE and the Saudis saying, we want you to go full on, take the oil in Karg Island, regime change.

I'm not hearing that.

I'm hearing particularly make sure you get the ballistic missile capabilities, all of them, you know, make sure you do something about, um, the nuclear capabilities, like deal with that.

Like, don't, we don't want to have to get back, keep getting back to this, um, every few months because this is very vulnerable, um, for us.

Now, I will also say that in Trumplandia, uh,

not only is this kind of war becoming more unpopular among his base, though it's still over, it's still unbalanced popular, but it's also, I mean, he is now hearing from people internally that, hey, let's really, let's have a pause.

Let's have a pause.

Like J.D.

Vance, my understanding, is bringing a 30-day pause suggestion to Trump.

They're saying, let's see if like in the conversations we're having with the Iranians, let's see if we both accept that.

And then we can talk the markets down for a while.