Ian Bremmer

to an agreement in principle that Hamas accepted, but was not the same as the Israeli plan, but that Trump immediately said, yes, they want peace. And so Israel, you've got to stop bombing. And Israel in return basically stopped bombing. And now they're sitting down to figure out the places where they say they agree, but they don't quite agree.

There are a lot of details that require the United States to use leverage they have with the Israelis and leverage it's unclear they have against Hamas. Not because Hamas is powerful, they're not, but because Hamas increasingly is acting like a bunch of dead-enders.

jotka eivät ole ymmärrettäviä kokoomukseen, mutta heidän järjestelmänsä on loppu. Heillä on paljon vähemmän vahvaa, mikä tekee heille vaikea päästä loppuun.

and they will not be a part of any Gaza reconstruction or governance. That is not acceptable to anyone outside Hamas. No one wants that. So if this is going to go forward, Hamas is done.

doesn't mean there won't be radicals that aren't a part of any governance structure that will still have some kind of allegiance or fealty, doesn't mean it won't morph into some other organization that doesn't recognize the right of Israel to exist, but that won't be Palestinian governance on the ground in Gaza.

Palestinian governance is going to morph into, once a ceasefire is agreed to, and that may be soon and it may not be soon, but when it happens, you're going to have a technocratic group that is essentially put in place with approvals of the United States and the Gulf,

It'll be paid for mostly by the Gulf. It'll be administered in the near term, perhaps by Tony Blair acting as a temporary governor who has a lot of support from the United States, from Trump, from Jared Kushner and from the Gulf states, who he has been engaged with at the highest levels. It's been the biggest part of his business for well over a decade now.

And the security will be provided not by Palestinians, but probably by the Egyptians, perhaps by some UN peacekeepers paid for again by the Gulf states. So we're not yet, I mean, this is not a state.

This is a governance model without elections. It's a governance model with Palestinians that are seen to be trusted and capable hands of executing on basic needs for reconstruction that will be funded and with security that is provided by non-Palestinians.

And if that happens, by the way, Helen, that is by far the best possible outcome near term, given what everyone has been through for the last two years. So we all want this. There's a reason why the Europeans, the Brits, the Canadians, the Japanese, the Americans, including a lot of Democrats, the Gulf states, are all saying they support this deal. Because there is no other way forward at this point.

Right, right. For actual progress we need to do something. What Trump announced, if you remember, back when he had the Jordanian king in town months and months ago, which was this making Gaza into a riviera on the Mediterranean and the Palestinians will all leave and the Gulf will build it out. That was never going to happen. It was never going to be accepted. And Trump has completely

shit-canned that plan. And that's really important. It's a skill that Trump has, that his ability, when something that he floats completely fails, his ability frequently to forget that it was ever anything that he even talked about is important and is a component of how we might be getting to yes here. The fact that he had a plan that was completely unworkable, that he was pushing and he has thrown away.

ja valmistautumisen palestiinalaisille päivän aikana oli paljon vaikeampaa saada kaikkia esiin.

I mean, that is the reality. And I'm not suggesting this is ideal. I'm not suggesting it's permanent. I'm not suggesting it's where we're gonna be in a year. But if the Gulf states are paying for it, and the Americans are doing the diplomatic lifting, and if it ends the war, and let's keep in mind, this war is involving humanitarian aid being blockaded from getting in

to Gaza with two million Palestinians facing extraordinarily unconscionable conditions, with people dying of starvation. Not to mention the fact that there's been an ongoing war with tens of thousands of people getting killed, some of whom are Hamas militants, many of whom

are civilians, are kids, are women, are the elderly, are the infirm. I'd love to get to good governance. I'd love to get to a state,

which is even farther than good governance. But the first thing we need to do is end the war. And again, I think everyone needs to understand that a ceasefire with borders that are secured by not just Israel and occupying power, but by others that will want humanitarian aid to get in, with Hamas out,

That is a huge win for the ability of the Palestinian people to survive, to get a basic education, to have medical care, all of the things that they haven't had for most of two years now. Now, look, it is important that the two-state solution still at least in principle exists.

Olemme nähneet, että nyt noin 150 maailmaa ympäri maailmaa on tunnettu palestiinalaisen valtion, joka ei ole olemassa. Se sisältää suurin piirtein amerikkalaisia ympäri maailmaa. Se on tärkeää, mutta israelilaiset eivät tuhoa palestiinalaisen valtion.

The Israeli government doesn't support a Palestinian state. The plan that's been put forward doesn't completely close the door on one, but it makes it very hard at some indeterminate time in the future. And the Gulf states are willing to live with it. They're willing to fund it without any more specificity than that. And I will tell you that at this point, I feel like a Palestinian state is functionally dead.