Ian Bremmer

You need longer-range missiles to hit Israel, which they don't have many of.

And Israel, much more hardened targets.

I don't like cartels.

I don't like monopolies, whether they're US platforms or they're global commodity unions.

And in that regard, the breakup of OPEC will lead to more competition and lower prices over time.

I believe that is true.

And that certainly redounds to America's overall interests.

Now, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are both allies of the United States.

Um, militarily, they both rely on the U S for intelligence to a very great degree.

Now, Saudi Arabia, their missile program is provided by China.

And that is important.

Uh, it's also because the Americans weren't about to sell Tomahawks to the Saudis.

Longer term, I see Saudi Arabia becoming more aligned with China in terms of who's going to buy their oil export.

And Saudi sees themselves as the big producer of the last inexpensive barrels over decades that will still be needed in a global economy that's transitioning, but still very much reliant in part on oil and gas.

I also think that the Saudis will be more enticed to buy Chinese technology, including AI, because it will be less expensive for their own population than the Emiratis, who will want to be more aligned with the US military industrial technological complex.

So for now, both of these countries are still aligned pretty strongly with the United States overall, militarily.

Over time,

I expect that that will become more true for the Emiratis and it will become less true for the Saudis.

There's also the kleptocracy piece, the fact that so many billions of dollars are trading hands from the Gulf

to the Trump family and the Trump inner circle.