Ian Bremmer

There's also massive investments made into the United States.

I think that the Saudis, even though they've promised a trillion dollars and Trump went there at the beginning of the term and he made that huge announcement of how much the Saudis were going to give them, I think the Saudis are much more likely to downgrade how much money they'll put in the U.S.,

And they will reprioritize domestic investment for their own sovereign wealth funds.

While the Emiratis, I think, are going to be doing much more globally.

And in that regard, they will be seen as deeper pockets and more attractive partners for a lot of Western multinationals.

So these things are, again, I think geopolitically, there are lots of consequences that will be playing out for a very long time on the back of this war.

But the most immediate and consequential is probably this dynamic, which we are seeing play out with the headline of the Emiratis leaving OPEC.

The Americans say they have more leverage.

the fact that the Germans spoke the way they did implies they think the Iranians have more leverage, which is not helpful.

I will say the Iranians have an information advantage.

They have an asymmetry here, right?

Trump for a very long time has talked about the fact that you never know what Trump is going to do is an advantage, right?

Like he could do crazy.

And so people have to be careful with him.

Well, we actually know less about the Iranian leadership

who is willing and capable of ultimately implementing a decision, how decentralized the decision-making process is.

And we don't have good information on who's saying what to whom.

We're in the United States, we've got polls, we've got impact in the markets, we've got all sorts of people inside the Trump administration that are talking to the media.

So it is easier for the Iranians to assess

that Trump wants a ceasefire, that he's looking for an off ramp, that he's promising the American people that this war will be over soon.