Ian Bremmer

And so we no longer have mass starvation in Gaza.

So, I mean, frankly, I mean, he was lying a lot more dramatically on the economy.

Yeah.

than he was on foreign policy in my view.

And in some of the places where he hasn't done that well, like Russia, Ukraine, he didn't really mention it.

I think he got 20 seconds Russia, Ukraine, because he said he was gonna end the war and he's failed at end of the war.

And he's admitted repeatedly that he's failed at end of the war.

So, I mean, he's not completely untethered from reality.

He just frequently chooses not to recognize it when it's inconvenient and uncomfortable.

yeah i i i like his book uh... a lot uh... he's uh... you know more of an economist i'm a political scientist so i'm focusing on the geopolitics specifically and uh... i i think it's cyclical so i see this as a bust cycle because of the balance of power is no longer aligned with the institutions the architecture the policies or the values and that's particularly

playing out with the Americans, the most powerful country, stepping back from their own historic leadership.

So, I mean, the good news is that that's very unlikely to get you the so-called Thucydides trap, a World War III.

Historically, usually when you have a move to instability in geopolitics, it's because the major power is in decline.

and trying to hold on to its old system, the rising power wants to create a new one.

That's not what's happening here.

The United States is still the most powerful country.

It's just unilaterally saying it doesn't wanna be in charge of collective security or free trade or promotion of democracy of rule of law.

So it's causing a lot of instability, but it's not causing global conflict.

they're primarily doing it economically.

And the reason it's mostly economic is because the global economy today is increasingly multipolar, while the global security environment is still dominated by the United States.