Ian Bremmer

They're surprised by the hypersonics that were able to get through American defenses in the Sultan Air Base in Riyadh and destroy American advanced aircraft.

They're surprised by the range

that the Iranian missiles were able to show to launch a small attack on the base of Diego Garcia.

So there has been more capability shown militarily on the part of the Iranians, despite all this damage.

The long and the short of it, Scott, is that it's hard to say

who has more leverage here.

But it is clear that President Trump is looking for an off ramp.

It is clear that President Trump is not in any way interested in a short term return to war fighting.

And it's not as clear what the Iranian incentives are in this environment.

Yeah, I think you've framed it extremely appropriately, right on the money, Scott.

This is the question I'm exercising myself with and my analysts at our firm every day.

I think you're right that Trump feels like he cannot just cut and run here, even though that is clearly the right thing for America's national interests.

The longer this war goes on, the more damage, the more costly,

but Trump is unprepared to declare victory, even though he has tried to.

I mean, how many times has he said, ah, the straight is the European problem, it's the Asian problem, they have to deal with it.

He has said this.

He has set himself up

to declare victory and leave, but he's not willing to do it because he knows it just looks horrible.

It feels like too much of a loss, even for Trump, who is one of the most incredibly shameless

at saying things that just aren't so and willing them to be the truth for himself and his supporters, even he does not believe that this is plausible and credible.