Ian Bremmer

And yet we're in an environment where the baseline outcome, even if he were to declare victory and leave today, the baseline outcome is worse than the deal that was on offer to Jared and Witkoff by the Iranians

before the war started, it is a worse outcome than if Trump had not left the Iranian nuclear deal, the JCPOA, at the beginning of his administration.

And it becomes a worse outcome for every day that he chooses to continue with this blockade.

The costs are so much greater than the benefits of continuing with this fight.

And he's chasing it.

He's chasing the dragon, right?

I mean, he needs a bigger hit and a bigger hit every moment.

And he's becoming Tupac committed.

And you and I both know, we've seen people with gambling addiction problems, they end up getting themselves in bigger and bigger holes.

So this, I think that he should declare victory and leave.

What he seems to believe right now and what I've been hearing from the White House is

is, and this reflects him saying to the public, you need to be more patient.

After he told the public that we're gonna be done in two to three weeks max, the war will be over, that has proven not to be the case.

He told the G7 allies a few days, just a couple more days at the beginning of the war, and the Iranians are gonna surrender unconditionally.

That turned out obviously to be very, very far from the case.

He's now saying, if we just give it another month or two privately,

then the Iranians will be under such economic pressure because of the blockade, which isn't biting yet and isn't biting in part because he suspended the sanctions on Iran at the beginning of the war so he could keep the oil prices low.

Turned out not to be such a foresightful move.

that then they will be forced to come to the table and negotiate more seriously with the Americans and give him the nuclear win that he is seeking.

That is a theory of the case that is plausible.