Ian Bremmer
speaker
4,435 appearances
19 recordings
12 series
first heard Jun 2025
last heard 1 Aug
Ian Bremmer’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 18 in all, peaking in Jan 2026 with 4.
Appearances
sub-Saharan African countries that may enter financial crises because they can't provide, they don't have the fiscal space to provide the continued support for their populations given where prices are going.
And that's before the food crunch.
because the fertilizer has missed the growing season now, but you haven't passed that through to food until the growing season leads to vegetables and fruits and grains that then are exported.
The Americans and the Europeans and the Japanese, they'll get the food, it'll just be a higher price.
Countries in the global south, a lot of those will not even have access to that food.
People will starve on the back of this.
Is there an estimate of how big this will be?
I've heard from members of the United Nations that are involved in global food distribution that the impact on the global GDP next year could be as much as 1.5%.
Again, the United States will be much lower than that, but some of these other economies will be much higher.
And look, the danger, every country you talk to, every leader you talk to sees President Trump individually as uniquely responsible for this economic downturn.
And every day that the Strait remains closed is a day that the Americans are responsible further for that.
And I think that the impact of that on the trust and the reliability of the United States, as the Americans tell the Saudis, well, if you don't do an Abraham Accords deal, maybe we're not going to support reopening the Strait.
The impact on the Saudis are, why are we working with these guys the way we used to?
Why don't we engage more with the Chinese?
I would say that the UAE, along with the Israelis, have been much more interested in the war continuing to ensure that Iran no longer has that capacity.
That's very different from the Saudi view, which is aligned with Pakistan and Egypt and Turkey, much more of an Islamic bloc, that will find a way to engage in a peace settlement with the Iranians after the war is over.
Now, I mean, the Saudis are not hurt as much economically because they're moving 7 million barrels a day across their east-west pipeline through the Red Sea, which doesn't need the Strait of Hormuz.
You've got other countries like Kuwait, for example, Qatar, that can't get anything out unless the Strait is open.
So very different perspectives inside the Gulf itself to how this war should be responded to.
But with the exception of Israel and the UAE, and the UAE, by the way, did not like this war when it started.
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