Ian Bremmer

Luulen, että Israelin pitäisi olla hyvin hyödyllinen pitkällä aikavälillä, jos voisi olla jonkinlainen ratkaisu, jossa Bibi ja hänen perheensä olisi hyödyllinen, turvallinen ja turvallinen, ja olisi hyvinvointi.

after leaving power, so that his incentives become more aligned with that of the Israeli people long term and less aligned with the aggrandizement of Bibi. I would love to see that happen. I don't see that happening, but that is a problem.

Fascinating, fascinating. So as you mentioned, the Egyptians are talking with Hamas right now. What do you think, as people who are non-behind the scenes, what should we be watching for and what do you think is going to happen next? Look, as I said, there's a lot that needs to happen to get to yes here. The 20-point plan said that the hostages would be released, all of them, within three days

of a deal being put forward and being agreed, a deal being agreed. Hamas has said in principle that they agree with that formula, but they said that there have to be conditions that are met on the ground. We don't know exactly what those conditions are, and once the 48 hostages are given up,

That's game over for Hamas. They no longer have that leverage. And that's been their core leverage all the way through. Despicable, illegal leverage, but nonetheless. So them actually agreeing to it, clearly they have conditions that they want to be achieved and we'll see what they are and if that's something that Israel will agree with. There's the issue of Hamas

disarming itself and Israel has said all the way through that Hamas needs to be dismembered. Well, what exactly does disarmament of Hamas look like? How would it occur and when would it occur? Historically, Hamas has always said they would only do that once there's a Palestinian state. Well, that's not where we are right now. So are we going to get to actual Hamas disarmament? And it's not clear.

if that's going to occur. Hamas also has to accept that they will not be a part of governance at all in Gaza. So far they have not actually accepted that. I assume they will, but they haven't. So that needs to happen. And that's what Hamas has to do. There's also the issue of Israeli withdrawal and the timing of that. There's been a map

that the White House has put out publicly that has different stages of Israeli withdrawal, with first about half of Gaza being withdrawn from by Israel, and then by the third phase, the final phase, only 15%, essentially a buffer zone that Israel maintains,

as security, land they didn't have before, but land they apparently will have going forward, and the rest goes to this local governance that is being put in place. All of those things have to happen. All of those things have to happen. They have not yet happened. So there is a lot between what Trump has said and what has been announced and getting to a ceasefire that creates a peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians.

I'm joking because he says that a lot and then it becomes another two weeks, another two weeks. Look, this has a level of real urgency because the world is paying attention and has a lot at stake. So Hamas is going to have to either agree. I don't know that it has to be three days. I think that they can continue to send all the right signals and say this is a great plan and Trump's an amazing peacemaker. But I don't think this can go on for months.

It might go on for days to weeks, but if we are still talking about implementing this within two to four weeks, I suspect the war then goes back on and Israel is bombing again. Then you've got questions around, can you find all the hostages, and the whole thing could blow apart.

Tämä tulee olemaan hyvin tanssia ja hyvin intensiivisiä aikoja, ja Trumpin ihmisille tulee laittaa paljon elbogreaseja, jotta voidaan varmistaa, että kyseessä on kyse. Mutta jos olisitte kysyneet minua nyt, en olisi laittanut paljon rahaa tähän, että tämä tapahtuu. Tässä on liian monia tavoitteita, jotta tämä jätetään kiinni.

Helen, such a pleasure to be with you again.

Well, we don't know exactly how many planes were taken out.

The Ukrainians claim 41.

They, as antagonists in both sides of wars, always tend to maximize the numeric exploits.

So we can confirm probably almost half of that number.

It'll probably go up.

We'll see.

But the point remains the same.