Ian Bremmer
speaker
4,435 appearances
19 recordings
12 series
first heard Jun 2025
last heard 1 Aug
Ian Bremmer’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 18 in all, peaking in Jan 2026 with 4.
Appearances
And so, yes, the Gulf states will end up having to pay a lot of money directly to Iran, but that'll be negotiated by the Qataris, by the Emiratis, by the Saudis, not Trump's problem.
Second is that they continue to work in direct negotiations with the Iranians to see if they can achieve some kind of compromise where the first time around it didn't work because now they've caused more damage and they've shown that they're willing to tolerate higher price of oil for longer, willing to actually implement a blockade.
So even if they haven't caused much damage to Iran, they are showing a greater willingness to take pain
and that that means that the Iranians might not get paid off for a very long time, if ever.
So try that again.
And the third option is some level of military escalation.
And this could be slight increase in what infrastructure you hit,
or going after the nuclear facilities, pickaxe mountain, very, very deep underground, hardened facility, uranium enrichment capabilities.
Trump has said on many occasions, they're never gonna have nukes, they'll never develop nukes.
So then he could say, at least in principle, see, I took away their capacity to do nukes, and so that's a win for me.
Those are the options that he's presently looking at.
None of them are likely to reopen the Strait immediately.
Some risk greater damage and fighting, but I think you're talking about probably something between a month or two of the Strait remaining closed and disrupted with no additional major military escalation to let's say six to 12 months,
of major disruption with some significant military escalation, but still not the kind of all-out conflagration across the Gulf.
That's the bid-off or spread, if you will, between where we might be heading next.
in the coming months, all of this with significant economic costs to the United States and around the world.
And it is worth remembering that, I mean, pretty much every world leader looks at this war and says President Trump and the Israeli prime minister, but they're basically blaming Trump because he's the superpower, are causing damage to us and our economy through this war.
Having said that, the damage is lower than a lot of people thought.
The oil prices today are lower than a lot of people thought.
We're not in a global recession.
Showing 81–100 of 4,435 · page 5 of 222
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