Ian Main
speaker
30 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Oct 2012
last heard Apr 2013
Ian Main’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
More or Less · Predicting L'Aquila Earthquake: is it right to blame the scientists? · 29 Oct 2012
podcast
One of the things that's fairly consistent about earthquake population dynamics is that they often occur in clusters.
And we can understand the physics of that in terms of stress redistribution caused by small earthquakes or bigger ones, and the fact that that then makes earthquakes more likely to occur.
So how much more likely is an earthquake to occur if there's been an earthquake swarm, as they're called, beforehand?
So it can be significantly above the background rate.
So instead of once in 100 years, it might be once in a few months or something like that.
So the probability could be on the order of up to, say, 1% that a small earthquake or series of small earthquakes might trigger a bigger one that would cause significant damage.
Yes, it's a significant probability gain...
but it's still low absolute probability.
There's on the order of or less than a 1 in 100 chance of a swarm ending in a larger earthquake or a smaller earthquake triggering a bigger one.
It's very rare, but it does occur.
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