Jake Howe
speaker
144 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Aug 2024
last heard Aug 2024
Jake Howe’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Netflix has $38 billion in revenue. They're worth almost $300 billion, so that's an interesting corollary. You got Waymo doing 50,000 paid trips a week now. 2.5 million... a year, and that's growing quite nicely. You got Android, right? They don't disclose revenue. You got the G Suite. So let's start with you, Freeberg, and then I'll go to you, Chamath, because you made the prediction.
What do you think would be accretive or generally increase the market cap and be something that Google would be happy with and the government would be happy with if you had to maybe shed one or two properties? What's a possible outcome here?
All right, Shamatha, you predicted the possibility of a big O. Here we are. Your thoughts on what this might look like, chances of it happening, and then just maybe if you're interested in the anti-success approach here, or do you think this is more valid criticism of Google's massive search monopoly?
You know, I have a long relationship with Google as a content creator, and they do have a massive monopoly in search. That's absolutely true. And the Justice Department, I think, is well within their rights to take a deep dive on that. They don't have it in ads.
If you look at the competition for Google in advertising, you got Meta, TikTok, and Amazon, which have very, very significant advertising businesses, and then like a bunch of new players, which are referred to basically as the shopping cart ad networks. That's Uber, Instacart, DoorDash, et cetera.
And so when you look at this, it's kind of paradoxical that it really does rhyme with what happened with Microsoft. They're two decades late on this. The search monopoly has been squeezed for every dollar and to build every... sub-component of Google's monopoly.
Flights, shopping, all of these things put into Google search and put at the top above organic search has basically killed hundreds, hundreds of startups over the decades. And so I actually don't think this is going to do much if they do a breakup. The easy solution for... Google, and I agree with, I think, people who said that here, is to just spin out YouTube and Waymo.
Those two are perfect standalone businesses. Yeah, there's some backend stuff, but like you said, Freeberg, they could become customers of the ad network of the cloud for some number of years. But YouTube and Waymo, those would be like a $400 billion company, a $50 billion company, and those are right in the zeitgeist of the future and what advertisers want.
So I think offering those two up would unlock massive shareholder value. The most damaging one would be Android. If they force them to sell Android, that is going to be massively damaging because an independent Android company could then, you know, give their search default to Bing and Microsoft would happily bid for that.
They would auction it, right. And so, I mean, losing every- On Google's fork of Android, right? Correct. And so that is the dominant player. And then they have handsets. So how much is that worth?
That would be incredibly damaging to Google. That's the most damaging. The easiest is YouTube and Waymo in this whole mix. But I'll give you the wild card in all of this.
And they will lose one third of their revenue to that new company. Now, of course, they'll get it back in the equity, but then they don't have it because about a third of searches are mobile now. And that's increasing. The big wild card in all this is Apple. When I was doing Mahalo, which was a human powered search in over 10 years ago, that's Sequoia back. I emailed it to Steve Jobs.
He opened it. He played with it a bunch. I won't talk about anything else in that regard. But they had a search project in the works when Steve Jobs was in charge over there. They were looking at search because he had such an ax to grind with Eric Schmidt because they launched Android and he kicked Eric Schmidt off the board. And there was a lot of hand-wringing there.
I think Apple is, and I've heard this from folks around Apple, that they're looking at search again. And there's DuckDuckGo and there's a company called Brave that has their own search engine and search API that's gotten very popular. I believe Apple is going to launch their own search engine and compete heads up with Google.
And so I think that's going to be the very interesting thing that happens in this market. The question then becomes, Chamath, does this distract management to a level like it did Microsoft and you have a lost decade and it takes their eyes off the prize of AI?
I think the- I'm always referring to management, you know? Like, do you think it distracts management from running the business, Shema?
I'm gonna take the other side of that. I think that what they can do with their massive amount of power is destructive to competition in the marketplace. If you look at self-driving, we have had tens of billions of dollars invested. Without Waymo, it would have been just fine. There have been so much money, Tesla, Uber, you know, a cruise GM, there's plenty of people out there.
There's plenty of capital out there from around the world. And I think when these companies and Facebook's one, I think proves my point, what you're saying here is,
I think it would be better that you didn't have these companies that could put $20 billion into something and you had 50 startups go after it rather than these giant companies just steal it and overpower them, flooding them with capital. It makes the world less dynamic that Zuck can just, and Google can keep taking the next category from the marketplace. Go ahead, Sax. You had a point?
Yeah. So, I mean, I guess it's a negotiation now. Maybe they put up one or two to be spun out and then the negotiation happens. And who knows, you could have regime change in Washington. Okay, let's keep moving through this incredibly. Juicy Docket, Starbucks CEO, is out after a year and a half of underperformance. Star B's CEO, Laxman Narasim, stepped down after just 16 months on the job.
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