James Mackintosh

speaker

379 appearances 7 recordings 1 series first heard Nov 2017 last heard Nov 2024

James Mackintosh’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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WSJ Your Money Briefing · Growth Stocks vs. Value Stocks: Where's the Smart Money? · 29 Nov 2017 podcast

And the question is then, when you look at the value of value, you say, well, are cheap stocks cheaper than they normally are?

And are cheap stocks cheaper than they normally are compared to growth stocks?

Those are ways of looking at this.

And

some people think that's a worthwhile comparison and other people say well it's all very well as an idea but it doesn't tell you anything about how they're going to perform at least in the near term these are all people who agree that value stocks in general over the long run should outperform question is can you time just when this for example this year's terrible outperformance will end and switch to switch to starting value stocks starting to be attractive again and

broadly speaking, there's a decent argument for saying, well, value on its own as a strategy isn't very good for timing.

So cheap stocks do do well over the very long term, or at least they have in the past.

But the fact that stocks are cheap doesn't tell you anything about what they'll do in the next three months, six months, or a year, or even three years.

So if it's useless as a timing indicator on its own, there's no reason to think that the value of value

would be useful as a timing indicator for when value will again start outperforming.

Like I said, it does get pretty meta.

Well, certainly the best defense for growth at the moment is that we've got a very large amount of technological disruption going on.

And the most obvious example, given we just had Cyber Monday and Black Friday,

is the switch to online shopping, which has, of course, trashed the stocks of lots of the traditional shopping malls, department stores.

People are switching to online shopping instead.

It would not be unreasonable to say this is a true disruption and, you know, why would you want to own a shopping mall given that?

But, of course, there will still be some value in the shopping malls.

There may even be some value in the department stores.

They're not likely to disappear entirely, all of them, at least not for many, many years yet.

So the question is just how cheap do they have to be to be worthwhile buying?

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