James Stewart
speaker
4,486 appearances
22 recordings
2 series
first heard Apr 2025
last heard yesterday
James Stewart’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 17 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 3.
Appearances
Now, if those trade winds are weaker than usual, this upwelling effect lessens, resulting in a warmer patch in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
If those sea surface temperatures rise by more than half a degree Celsius above average, then that is an El Niño.
Conversely, when trade winds are stronger, ocean temperatures dip below average and we see a La Niña develop, where those temperatures are more than half a degree Celsius lower than average.
This cycle lasts between 9 and 12 months and repeats every 2 to 7 years.
And at the time of recording, we're in an ENSO neutral state, at least according to Noah.
But not for much longer.
During an El Nino, Eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures usually do reach around 1 to 3 degrees Celsius above normal, shifting tropical convection currents and jet streams.
This typically brings wetter winters to California and some regions in South America, and drier conditions to Australia, Indonesia and Southern Africa.
In fact, one strange quirk of El Niño is that it tends to suppress Atlantic hurricanes.
What it does is increase upper-level winds across the tropical Atlantic.
That then creates wind shear that pulls apart tropical storm systems before they can develop into the hurricanes.
But unfortunately it's bad news elsewhere because it enhances the potential for Pacific storms.
That's due to an increase in energy in the ocean because warm surface water fuels the development of tropical storms which turn into cyclones.
It also generally raises global temperatures by 0.1-0.2°C above trend, often producing the warmest years on record if they coincide with ongoing warming.
I should point out that this is not a new concept, nor is having an El Nino a product
climate change.
It's a natural part of our planet, a heartbeat that's been thumping for at least 10,000 years.
I mean, we have evidence of ENSO's chemical fingerprints in ancient coral fossils and sediment cores stretching back long before the first steam engine was even built.
But this year feels different.
Something sinister is brewing out there, and it's starting to look very much like we're heading for a super El Niño.
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