James Stewart
speaker
4,486 appearances
22 recordings
2 series
first heard Apr 2025
last heard yesterday
James Stewart’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 17 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 3.
Appearances
And the ECMWF, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, shows there is a chance of temperature anomalies exceeding three degrees before October, taking us well in to super territory.
Indeed, on the other side of the scale to NOAA, according to the ECMWF, the odds of a super El Nino by July have already climbed beyond 50%.
And as we approach winter, its emergence appears inevitable.
Just a quick word of caution here when it comes to data and modelling.
I know you know this, but I just have to sort of say it.
Forecasters do note that models tend to overshoot El Nino's strength in the spring, and the outcome actually depends on whether those westerly winds continue what they're doing.
But because they're doing it right now, that's where these numbers come from.
However you choose to interpret those numbers is up to you, but what I think we can deduce for certain is that the environment is primed for a strong event.
So, if we do end up with the fabled Super El Nino, well what does that mean for us?
The short answer is amplified extremes.
All the usual El Nino effects would be supercharged.
It'd be like driving around in your car playing your music with your bass turned up to maximum, you know?
The first and perhaps most obvious thing we've already touched on, there would be a record-breaking global heat spike.
Each El Niño year brings hotter conditions globally, and even without the help of all the extra greenhouse gas emissions, we'd usually expect somewhere in the region of 0.1 to 0.2 degrees worth of increase.
But for a super El Niño, well that could put temperatures in 2026, 2027 to unprecedented heights, the hottest years on record, exceeding 1.7, even 1.8 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
In the most extreme scenarios, sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific region approach a stark 3.8 degrees Celsius by the year end.
And when you consider that the IPCC wanted to limit warming to just 1.5 degrees, you start to see just how extreme this really is.
And it's not just the temperatures we should be worrying about either.
There would be a series of extreme precipitation patterns in every corner of the planet.
A Super El Niño would bring torrential rains to the coasts of Peru and Ecuador.
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