Jan Szilagyi
speaker
232 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Aug 2026
last heard 3 Aug
Jan Szilagyi’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 1.
Appearances
The way the exchange rate mechanism worked at the time, if he was wrong, he was only going to lose maybe a few basis points.
But if he was right, he was going to make several percent.
And on the base of having the entire fund bet on that, that ended up being quite a lot of money.
But the key here is he found an expression of the idea that offered by far the best risk reward and was therefore able to and ultimately monetized it in a really, really big way.
What I noticed is he was extremely good at basically after he laid out a particular thesis and how he thought about why a trade made sense.
He was very good at then observing whether or not the subsequent price action actually was consistent in response to incoming new information to what he would expect it to be.
In other words, if you basically had a trade on that was long dollar and that was contingent on higher interest rates and therefore higher interest rate differential and inflation numbers, and you ended up getting a higher than expected inflation number, but the dollar stopped strengthening in response, that would immediately trigger some alarm bells.
In other words, the price action wasn't really corresponding to what you would envision as your hypothesis was.
On the other hand, if it did, that's when you could see him validate the thesis and then really scale up the trade so that it could go from being a very small trade to a very large trade.
in a very short amount of time and conversely could go from being a very very large trade to having no trade at all also in a very short period of time so this was there was this incredible nimbleness in response to intuiting and observing how the correlations between prices and different assets that he considered to be important to watch for a particular trade
Awesome.
Yeah, I mean, I think this is in particular where I think having some help.
from, in this case, we've obviously built reflexivity particularly around that concept, but the idea would effectively be that you are starting to, or you assume that perhaps the equity market has a lot further to run, that that's basically based on the assumption that interest rates are not going to rise and that the Fed will continue to be accommodative.
But you start to notice that actually as yields come down, equities are no longer actually rallying that much.
They seem to be kind of stuck.
You can do this by watching prices obsessively.
So that's one way of doing it.
Or you can have, which I think is a far easier way of doing it.
You can have the machine just in real time, calculate these sensitivities, calculate these correlations and so on.
And basically alert you to moments when it sort of feels like either the trading volume or the price action is really no longer as bullish as you would expect.
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