Jan Wong

speaker

169 appearances 4 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2012 last heard Oct 2012

Jan Wong’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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More or Less · Predicting L'Aquila Earthquake: is it right to blame the scientists? · 29 Oct 2012 podcast

This case isn't about the scientists' ability to predict earthquakes.

It's about their statements communicating the risk of an earthquake.

The Italian seismologists thought an earthquake was unlikely, but in a press conference the message seemed to be that that meant there was nothing to worry about at all.

This is the falsely reassuring statement which formed part of the case against them.

The scientists do have the right to appeal, but their jail sentences have been viewed with surprise and in some cases outrage by statisticians and scientists worldwide, like David Spiegelhalter, Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge University in the UK.

What do you feel needs to happen now to encourage people, I guess, to give independent advice without getting into these problems?

I presume there are other areas where professionals make forecasts and where they may or may not be met, and the consequences could also be devastating.

David Spiegelhalter.

And one of the lessons of all this is that understanding numbers, risks and uncertainty can sometimes be a matter of life and death.

Now, a little while ago we received an email from listener Movin Miranda in Malaysia.

So, Rahul Gandhi, the General Secretary of India's Congress Party, caused a political storm by claiming that 70% of young people in Punjab are drug addicts.

Well, more or less as Charlotte Pritchard has been looking into this one.

Charlotte, what have you got?

OK, so that statistic is plain wrong.

It's like saying 90% of murderers are men, so therefore 90% of men are murderers.

That would make the world a much more dangerous place.

Rajiv Shaw.

Thanks to him, and of course to you, Charlotte.

And that's all from us this week.

Do please keep your questions and comments coming, more or less at bbc.co.uk.

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