Janet Egan
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Appearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
Luckily, the verification mechanisms got built out anyway, and then they were able to show that actually it does work, and they've detected all six of the North Korean nuclear tests since they've come into effect.
But I think this is another example of there's often times where the technical answer isn't ready to hand, and that the science needs to advance further before we have really clear ways forward on how to manage some of these cases that aren't directly in line of sight, like the beyond frontier risks involved.
associated with verification.
For me, I think that means that we just need to do more science and more exploration and then use the time that we might have to actually think about and dedicate a lot of compute resources and experiments to how can you actually model some of these risk factors?
And are there different mechanisms that you can put in place that preserve privacy, that uphold democracy, but nevertheless lower the risk in general?
Yeah, I completely agree.
I think we just can't let the perfect get in the way of the good here.
And not to again go back to the nuclear case study, but we had that.
We had pretty bad non-compliance, which led to improvements.
So Iraq was a member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
And then after the 1991 Gulf War, it was discovered that they had actually had a
The reason it wasn't discovered was that IAEA was only requiring reporting and inspections on declared sites rather than broader visits and ongoing surveillance and testing of other sites as well when they had suspicions.
And that just led to a protocol being updated.
And now there's much stronger proactive discovery and enforcement by the IAEA.
And so for me, this is like every time someone says like, here are the reasons this won't work or here's all the ways it might fail.
I think we're in an environment where the technology is moving so quickly.
And I think how can we iterate quickly?
How can we get some of the best minds to be prototyping some of these technologies and preparing for a wide range of futures?
So that's what keeps me hopeful in this space.
I'd agree with all that.