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Jason Lemkin

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
3697 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Anthropic's $10BN Fundraise: Have They Beaten Cursor Already | a16z's $15BN Fundraise: Is the Middle Dead in VC Today? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero and ElevenLabs at $11BN: Buy or Not?

So they go to 30 billion.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Anthropic's $10BN Fundraise: Have They Beaten Cursor Already | a16z's $15BN Fundraise: Is the Middle Dead in VC Today? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero and ElevenLabs at $11BN: Buy or Not?

Now, a rule of thumb is I'm going to go now from ARR and run rate at the end.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Anthropic's $10BN Fundraise: Have They Beaten Cursor Already | a16z's $15BN Fundraise: Is the Middle Dead in VC Today? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero and ElevenLabs at $11BN: Buy or Not?

to gap revenue for the year, a rule of thumb says, take the opening ARR, the closing ARR, and calculate the average.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Anthropic's $10BN Fundraise: Have They Beaten Cursor Already | a16z's $15BN Fundraise: Is the Middle Dead in VC Today? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero and ElevenLabs at $11BN: Buy or Not?

10 billion, 30 billion, average is 20 billion.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Anthropic's $10BN Fundraise: Have They Beaten Cursor Already | a16z's $15BN Fundraise: Is the Middle Dead in VC Today? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero and ElevenLabs at $11BN: Buy or Not?

That says they do actual gap revenue of 20 billion next year.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Anthropic's $10BN Fundraise: Have They Beaten Cursor Already | a16z's $15BN Fundraise: Is the Middle Dead in VC Today? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero and ElevenLabs at $11BN: Buy or Not?

So it's 17 times NTM revenue.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Anthropic's $10BN Fundraise: Have They Beaten Cursor Already | a16z's $15BN Fundraise: Is the Middle Dead in VC Today? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero and ElevenLabs at $11BN: Buy or Not?

It's a much lower revenue multiple than Palantir.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Anthropic's $10BN Fundraise: Have They Beaten Cursor Already | a16z's $15BN Fundraise: Is the Middle Dead in VC Today? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero and ElevenLabs at $11BN: Buy or Not?

It's kind of comparable with Cloudflare, for God's sake, in the public markets.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Anthropic's $10BN Fundraise: Have They Beaten Cursor Already | a16z's $15BN Fundraise: Is the Middle Dead in VC Today? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero and ElevenLabs at $11BN: Buy or Not?

So you do that math.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Anthropic's $10BN Fundraise: Have They Beaten Cursor Already | a16z's $15BN Fundraise: Is the Middle Dead in VC Today? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero and ElevenLabs at $11BN: Buy or Not?

If the growth is there for one more year, it looks cheap.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Anthropic's $10BN Fundraise: Have They Beaten Cursor Already | a16z's $15BN Fundraise: Is the Middle Dead in VC Today? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero and ElevenLabs at $11BN: Buy or Not?

It's the old rule.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Anthropic's $10BN Fundraise: Have They Beaten Cursor Already | a16z's $15BN Fundraise: Is the Middle Dead in VC Today? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero and ElevenLabs at $11BN: Buy or Not?

It turns out you really, really can pay up for anything that goes 10x year on year.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Anthropic's $10BN Fundraise: Have They Beaten Cursor Already | a16z's $15BN Fundraise: Is the Middle Dead in VC Today? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero and ElevenLabs at $11BN: Buy or Not?

So that's the bet.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Anthropic's $10BN Fundraise: Have They Beaten Cursor Already | a16z's $15BN Fundraise: Is the Middle Dead in VC Today? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero and ElevenLabs at $11BN: Buy or Not?

And the guys who did it at 170 three months ago are feeling pretty smart now.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Anthropic's $10BN Fundraise: Have They Beaten Cursor Already | a16z's $15BN Fundraise: Is the Middle Dead in VC Today? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero and ElevenLabs at $11BN: Buy or Not?

There are 2x in four months.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Anthropic's $10BN Fundraise: Have They Beaten Cursor Already | a16z's $15BN Fundraise: Is the Middle Dead in VC Today? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero and ElevenLabs at $11BN: Buy or Not?

That's a good point.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Anthropic's $10BN Fundraise: Have They Beaten Cursor Already | a16z's $15BN Fundraise: Is the Middle Dead in VC Today? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero and ElevenLabs at $11BN: Buy or Not?

Yeah, I agree.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Anthropic's $10BN Fundraise: Have They Beaten Cursor Already | a16z's $15BN Fundraise: Is the Middle Dead in VC Today? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero and ElevenLabs at $11BN: Buy or Not?

And I think you should break the market up into, I would have said two, and as of yesterday, I'm going to say three, and I'll tell you what I mean in a second.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Anthropic's $10BN Fundraise: Have They Beaten Cursor Already | a16z's $15BN Fundraise: Is the Middle Dead in VC Today? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero and ElevenLabs at $11BN: Buy or Not?

The enterprise market.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: Anthropic's $10BN Fundraise: Have They Beaten Cursor Already | a16z's $15BN Fundraise: Is the Middle Dead in VC Today? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero and ElevenLabs at $11BN: Buy or Not?

There's the enterprise API market, which is basically selling your product to other ISVs who are building on top of it, or enterprise building on top of it.