Jason
👤 SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
Chances of a ground invasion are increasing.
War has cost $70 billion so far.
That's assuming $2 billion a day, which there seems to be consensus on via the Department of War.
Pentagon has asked Congress for another $200 billion.
To put that in context, the war in Ukraine was $113 billion in the first year.
This could quickly exceed it when we hit
50 days.
This isn't cheap.
There are lots of costs.
Here's your poly market on a ceasefire.
25% chance of a ceasefire by the end of April.
47% chance by the end of May.
The Sharps are thinking this could wrap up, but ground invasion, which would be just really...
impactful, I think.
63% chance by the end of April, 71% chance by the end of December.
We're going to get into the second order effects, but what do you think, Chamath?
This obviously is super unpopular war.
Freeberg, let's talk a little bit about fertilizer.
You had brought up when we had the start of the Ukraine war, hey, this is the breadbasket.
We could have a massive famine.