Jay Shambaugh
speaker
26 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jan 2026
last heard 19 Jan
Jay Shambaugh’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jan 2026 with 1.
Appearances
It's pretty large, especially when you're talking from China.
Tariffs don't necessarily change how much you import or export, but they very much redirect where they are because it's not like we have a flat tariff on everybody.
Our imports from China are way down.
Europe's imports from China are up a fair amount.
So I think you could divide it into two types of goods.
So some I think is what we might think of as kind of cheap products that are somewhat disposable goods.
Part of it is just over the last three years, the real value of China's currency has fallen quite a bit against the euro.
So
China has had very, very low inflation, in some cases deflation in some goods.
Europe's price has been rising, so the relative cost of goods has been going up for European goods relative to China.
And then the euro versus the RMB has moved in a way that has made Chinese goods just cheaper in Europe than they used to be.
There are some goods that, transparently, Europe isn't making a lot of right now.
And so that really may not be the most important thing.
Partly it may just be replacing goods that were coming from Mexico or were coming from Vietnam that are now going to the United States.
And I don't think that poses as big a threat.
On the other hand, the longer kind of more systemic shift where Chinese goods overall have been getting cheaper, and crucially, they've been shifting towards goods that used to be core manufactured goods for Europe, that you really do see concerns in Europe.
In some goods, they may not care.
Chinese solar panels are very cheap.
They're selling them below cost because they've produced far too many.
If Europe wasn't producing solar panels to begin with, they might say, great, we needed some cheap solar panels.
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