Jeff Guo

That's when you see stock prices not just go up, but go up faster and faster.

Oh, so like if you look at the stock price, it's not like a straight line.

It's more of like an exponential whoosh.

And Robin was like, OK, on one hand, we do have some companies with high valuations.

For instance, NVIDIA's price earnings ratio right now is in the 40s, which is elevated.

The average for companies in the S&P 500 is more like in the 20s.

Also, we are seeing some increased volatility in how the prices are fluctuating from day to day.

So check and kind of check.

Right.

But on the other hand, Robin says, there hasn't been that much new stock issuance.

The big companies involved in AI like Meta and Microsoft and Google, they aren't funding their new data centers by selling more shares to investors.

They're getting their money in other ways.

And also, there aren't that many private AI companies that are going public right now.

Now, we did press Robin on this a little, and he says even though not all the warning signs are flashing right now, he still takes the warning signs we are seeing, especially the high valuations, he takes them seriously.

Yes, okay, but here are the caveats.

Robin says, you know, even though these clues, they are real, they can help you predict a bubble, they aren't that great either.

What Robin told us is that if you look back at all those price spikes in the stock market over the past century, these clues could help you pick out the bubbles like...

Maybe 60% of the time.

So, in other words, a little better than a coin flip.

Yeah.