Jeff Guo

So check and kind of check.

Right.

But on the other hand, Robin says, there hasn't been that much new stock issuance.

The big companies involved in AI like Meta and Microsoft and Google, they aren't funding their new data centers by selling more shares to investors.

They're getting their money in other ways.

And also, there aren't that many private AI companies that are going public right now.

Now, we did press Robin on this a little, and he says even though not all the warning signs are flashing right now, he still takes the warning signs we are seeing, especially the high valuations, he takes them seriously.

Yes, okay, but here are the caveats.

Robin says, you know, even though these clues, they are real, they can help you predict a bubble, they aren't that great either.

What Robin told us is that if you look back at all those price spikes in the stock market over the past century, these clues could help you pick out the bubbles like...

Maybe 60% of the time.

So, in other words, a little better than a coin flip.

Yeah.

And actually, funny story here.

One of Robin's co-authors did go to Chicago at one point to present this paper, which, remember, they called it Bubbles for Fama.

And the University of Chicago is Fama's home turf.

He's the big man on campus there.

And Fama went to this talk.

He was actually sitting right there in the front row.

Right.