Jeremy Maletz

Is Keir Starmer going to be out as prime minister?

That stuff requires a lot of independent research.

But the good news is that there's so much information contained within the prediction market itself.

So one of the core market-making principles we have is

It really honestly comes from kind of a thing we teach with poker of understand what other people know and what other people are doing.

We can learn from the markets, seeing where they are.

This is what all these other super forecasters know.

We can combine that with our internal research and then get to a number.

So some things kind of have to be we draw it up and figure it out like that.

some stuff is we can use the information that's in other markets and some stuff is we're going to build a brand new model to figure this thing out because that's kind of in our, that's kind of in our DNA to say like, all right, here's a random thing, but you know, how are we going to, we're going to have to figure out compute, right?

Let's, let's figure out how to model compute and then, you know, we'll build it.

Right.

So I guess the insider trading is definitely something that comes up and there's certainly been plenty of articles that are written about it.

I think there's a couple of things to point out there.

The first one is that there's actually really two types of prediction markets that it's not always clear to people what the distinction is.

But there's the regulated prediction markets, such as Calci, such as Rothera Exchange that just launched, such as CME has one and

And Polymarket has a regulated exchange.

And then there's the crypto-based decentralized finance platforms.

And those are, you know, they don't have KYC, right?

And they're crypto-based, they're DeFi.