Joe Allen

Now, the war room is not at all unfamiliar with harsh evaluations, but I'm curious, if you had to pick, say, three most likely paths by which an artificial intelligence system or multiple systems were to overtake the human race and, as you say, spread across the solar system and the galaxy like a cancer, what would those three paths be?

So the first thing I would go to—

And what is your timeline?

If you have a definite timeline, what is your timeline say for the arrival of artificial general intelligence?

You know, I came at this quite skeptical of the possibility of, say, for instance, superhuman AI or even human equivalent AI.

It was going over the evaluations that... I won't say it's changed my mind, but it's certainly...

driven home the real possibilities of what these systems could do.

So the meter benchmark, for instance, how long can an AI code?

50% of the output a human could do, these sorts of things.

The benchmarks, for instance, the omniscience index or humanity's last exam, how well can AI go into its own mind, so to speak,

and draw out meaningful answers to incredibly difficult questions on health, business, science, so on and so forth.

Was that at all a part of your journey?

I mean, I know that you've been at this for a decade and a half plus, maybe two decades, you've been concerned about this.

Do those evaluations come into play as a way of kind of judging or measuring where we're at in relation to this possible artificial general or super intelligence?

You know, when I think about the history of this and just the recent history, say the last nine, ten years, the development of the Transformer, its adoption by OpenAI, the release of GPT, I think GPT-1 was released, what, 2018?

And at the time it was very, very clunky.

It wasn't a whole lot better than say something like Eliza, um, a bit more sophisticated, but not much.

And then all of a sudden by 2022, you have a very sophisticated chat bot, you know, chat GPT.

released in November of 2022.

And even then, it's really wonky.