Joe Lavagna
speaker
36 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Nov 2025
last heard 20 Nov
Joe Lavagna’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Nov 2025 with 1.
Appearances
Steve, thank you for having me.
The interpretation is the economy is holding in exclusively and entirely because of President Trump's policies.
We saw a very strong non-government-related rebound in Q2 GDP of 4.5 percent.
Atlanta Fed took its Q3 estimate up to 4.2.
Both quarters are going to be led entirely by the private sector.
We have an incipient capex boom because of the one big beautiful bill that the president
and his foresight needed to push through early so that the rules could be written.
We've got a substantial middle and lower income tax cut coming early next year through the no tax on tips and overtime.
All that is great, and the job numbers were better than expected today.
However, Steve, the three month moving average on jobs is still quite soft.
What we know is that when the Biden administration handed us the economy post all of these significant down revisions to BLS, there are basically two million fewer jobs over the last two years of the Biden administration than what was initially reported.
So the labor market's holding in only because of President Trump and interest rates by the Fed's own admission are too high.
So we do need lower rates, Steve, so that we can get this golden era broad-based industrial capex and consumption boom in 26.
But I'm fearful that in the short term, the Fed is going to focus more on demand, not enough on supply.
We don't get those necessary lower rates.
No, you can't.
But I do think the Fed needs to hear, again, very good, compelling, convincing arguments using their own methodology as to why interest rates are restrictive.
The yield curve is very flat.
Interest-sensitive sectors of the economy are soft.
And when we talk about a CapEx boom and return on capital, you have to make sure that capital costs aren't too high, especially for small businesses, Steve.
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