Lex Fridman Podcast
#401 โ John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3
And I would note that there were all sorts of people in the 1990s, like George Kennan, William Perry, who was Bill Clinton's Secretary of Defense, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Paul Nitze, and so forth and so on, who argued that NATO expansion would end up producing a disaster, which it has.
Lex Fridman Podcast
#401 โ John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3
I would note that at the famous April 2008 Bucharest summit where NATO said that Ukraine would be brought into the alliance, Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy, the German and French leaders respectively, opposed that decision.
Lex Fridman Podcast
#401 โ John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3
Angela Merkel later said that the reason she opposed it was because she understood that Putin would interpret it as a declaration of war.
Lex Fridman Podcast
#401 โ John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3
Just think about that.
Lex Fridman Podcast
#401 โ John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3
Merkel is telling you that she opposed NATO expansion into Ukraine because she understood correctly that Putin would see it as a declaration of war.
Lex Fridman Podcast
#401 โ John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3
What did the United States and its friends in Europe do?
Lex Fridman Podcast
#401 โ John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3
They continued to push and push because we thought that we could push NATO expansion down their throat after 2008, the same way we did in 1999 and 2004.
Lex Fridman Podcast
#401 โ John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3
But we were wrong, and it all blew up in our face in 2014.
Lex Fridman Podcast
#401 โ John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3
And when it blew up in our face in 2014, what did we do?
Lex Fridman Podcast
#401 โ John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3
Did we back off and say, well, maybe the Russians have some legitimate security interests?
Lex Fridman Podcast
#401 โ John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3
No, that's not the way we operate.
Lex Fridman Podcast
#401 โ John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3
We continued to double down.
Lex Fridman Podcast
#401 โ John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3
And the end result is that in 2022, you got a war.
Lex Fridman Podcast
#401 โ John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3
And as I've argued for a long time now, we, the West, are principally responsible for that, not Vladimir Putin.
Lex Fridman Podcast
#401 โ John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3
Yeah.
Lex Fridman Podcast
#401 โ John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3
To put it in more general terms, what we were trying to do was turn Ukraine into a Western bulwark on Russia's border.
Lex Fridman Podcast
#401 โ John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3
And it really wasn't NATO expansion alone.
Lex Fridman Podcast
#401 โ John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3
NATO expansion was the most important element of our strategy.
Lex Fridman Podcast
#401 โ John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3
But the strategy had two other dimensions.
Lex Fridman Podcast
#401 โ John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3
One was EU expansion, and the third was the color revolution.