John Minnich

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268 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Aug 2026 last heard 6 Aug

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Unhedged · The Economics Show: China wanted western tech. Now, the tables have turned. · 6 Aug 2026 podcast

case, we're going to see the same kinds of opportunities for really large scale Chinese foreign direct investment into the U.S.

in high technology industries and the technology transfers that that could bring.

So I would say I think in certain industries and vis-a-vis certain countries, this will be potentially a very significant limiting factor.

I would not be surprised, and we've already seen reporting to this effect, if China actively polices the kinds of technologies that its firms transfer to India, for example, potentially to certain European countries and probably certainly to the U.S., anyone that they see as either a current or a potential future competitor.

That said, I think even in the Chinese context,

One, we should remember that the existence of export controls or an export control regime itself doesn't necessarily mean you are actually blocking the export of certain technologies.

It simply means that there will be licensing requirements.

It requires approval.

And so there may be certain cases where the Chinese government can.

has an active interest in supporting the flow of technology out of China to other countries.

Here I'm thinking probably more likely global south countries than Europe.

But the second thing I would know is that even in a case like China, where you have a high capacity state with a relatively high ability to monitor the behavior of its firms,

There are still real limits to what the state can do vis-a-vis the hundreds, thousands of Chinese firms that are now beginning to go abroad in a very significant way to establish greenfield manufacturing operations.

And so I think it probably will be the case that Chinese firms, although they're likely to be maybe more savvy than their Western counterparts were 20 years ago when it comes to sharing technology...

They are, at the end of the day, firms.

They want to expand their market share.

They want to gain a presence in these countries.

And I think especially in cases where they are not particularly concerned about a competitive threat, I think they might be willing to do some of this.

Again, maybe the opportunities are greater in this sense in global south countries where local producers are likely to lag significantly behind Chinese competitors.

But I think they also potentially exist in places like European countries.

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