John Minnich

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268 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Aug 2026 last heard 6 Aug

John Minnich’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Unhedged · The Economics Show: China wanted western tech. Now, the tables have turned. · 6 Aug 2026 podcast

Of course, they handed over second or third generation technology, but compared to what was available in China, that was a massive leap forward.

And this

did contribute very directly to the growth in Chinese capabilities.

What we ended up seeing was as China ramped up these policies in the mid-2000s and then especially after the global financial crisis,

And in particular, as Chinese firms began to outcompete Western multinationals, first in the Chinese market, but then begin to expand abroad, Western multinationals then began to push their home governments, in particular the U.S., for some kind of remedial action.

And so in some ways, we have the trade imbalance story, but then running alongside that is the story of Western multinationals' experiences with technology transfer in China, their growing disillusionment with their failure to fully penetrate the Chinese market,

that in many ways sets the stage for the trade and technology conflicts that define the world that we now live in.

Oh, there are so many.

Theoretical debates on technology transfer go back to the 1830s, but really it was the U.S.

in the decades after its founding that was a real pioneer under Alexander Hamilton in the kinds of practices that we would now call technology transfer policy.

When we look at a lot of the early manufacturing industries in the U.S., textiles, steam power, other forms of low-value-added manufacturing, ironworking, and so on and so forth,

All of these industries in the U.S.

were seeded by technology transfers of various kinds.

Again, some licit, some illicit coming from the U.K.

You could say much the same for Germany under Bismarck in the 1870s and 1880s.

But the real wave of technology transfer policy being, I would say, an integral part of development begins with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan primarily developing.

In all of these cases, technology transfers from the U.S.

in particular were absolutely critical to seeding the development of what became the industries that these countries were promoting.

very famous for in subsequent decades.

Now, what's interesting about the cases of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, and I think this is the big contrast with China and this sets the stage for what makes China's case so interesting and so important, is that in the case of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, they were, of course, close Cold War allies of the U.S.,

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