John Mowrey

uh let's just start with your reactions to what happened uh in this ceasefire and how the markets reacted well you know i'll start by kind of you know simplifying what we were seeing as we kind of went into this week um earnings are holding up but multiples were not and to me that's really the story because you know if anything estimates have gone higher

And you were getting, you know, the tech sector at the lowest multiple going back to 2022.

So this was really about multiple compression.

And, you know, this is all pointing to what happened in the oil markets and how that subsequently feeds into the CPI and how that subsequently feeds into the Fed's path for rate expectations.

And as those expectations got pushed back,

you started to see the multiples compress more and more and more, even though there wasn't fundamental deterioration in the underlying stocks.

And I think it's a real key point.

Because I think a lot of times when people see sell-offs, they think, hey, that's because companies are doing poorly.

That happens sometimes.

But in this case, this was purely based on an exogenous shock.

And I think that all was...

trickling into how the Fed would move with interest rate cuts and those expectations.

So, you know, you're getting multiples really down to some of the lowest levels we've seen in many stocks in four or five years.

So I'm not surprised at all to see the relief rally today because we got some clarity potentially on opening the straight, which is 20% of supply, as we talked about last week.

So all of those things trickle into, OK, if oil prices come in, then that's going to

potentially lessen the impact on the CPI.

And that will allow for the Fed to potentially revisit what the expectation for the market was, which is multiple rate cuts over the next 12 months.

Well, I couldn't agree with Rob more in terms of, you know, it's going to take time for, you know, ships to start running straight again.

So I completely agree with that.

Markets will move ahead of that.