Markets Are Betting the Iran War Is Over — Is it?
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What recent events have impacted the markets?
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Welcome to ProfgMarkets. I'm Ed Elson. It is April 9th. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The major indices rose on news of the ceasefire. More on that in a second. Brent crude plummeted, the dollar fell, and Metastock popped more than 8% after releasing its new AI model, MuseSpark. Okay, what else is happening? The U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, making yet another Taco Tuesday. The two countries came to an arrangement just hours after Trump threatened to annihilate Iran. Under the deal, the U.S. agreed to suspend strikes, and Iran said it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Markets celebrated the news. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq surged nearly 2.5%, and the Dow jumped more than 1,300 points on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, crude fell from $110 to $90 overnight before settling around $95. However, the ceasefire is already showing cracks. Iran halted oil tanker passage through the Strait after Israel attacked Lebanon. Iran and Pakistan claim the deal covers Lebanon, while the U.S. and Israel say it doesn't. Iran's parliament speaker also claimed the U.S. has already violated three clauses of the proposal. The Iranian guard says it's keeping its finger on the trigger ahead of talks with the U.S. scheduled for Friday. Okay, lots to dive into here. We're going to discuss... this move from Trump and what it means for markets. We are joined by Robert Armstrong, commentator for the Financial Times and author of the Unhedged newsletter, as well as John Mowry, chief investment officer of NFJ Investment Group.
Thank you both for joining me. John, I'm just going to start with you because last week you and I discussed this and towards the end of our conversation, you said you think he's going to, you didn't say the word taco, but you said that he's not going to go through with this. And that is what happened.
uh let's just start with your reactions to what happened uh in this ceasefire and how the markets reacted well you know i'll start by kind of you know simplifying what we were seeing as we kind of went into this week um earnings are holding up but multiples were not and to me that's really the story because you know if anything estimates have gone higher And you were getting, you know, the tech sector at the lowest multiple going back to 2022. So this was really about multiple compression. And, you know, this is all pointing to what happened in the oil markets and how that subsequently feeds into the CPI and how that subsequently feeds into the Fed's path for rate expectations.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What recent events have impacted the markets?
0:00–8:17
2
How did the ceasefire with Iran affect oil prices?
8:17–16:12
3
What are the implications of inflation on market trends?
16:12–22:23
4
How are investors reacting to market volatility?
22:23–28:11
5
What opportunities exist in the current market landscape?
28:11–34:01
6
How does the Fed's approach to interest rates influence the economy?
34:01–34:18
Speakers
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