John Mowrey

So I think as an equity investor, you know, we have to be thinking about where markets will be before that occurs because equity markets are going to discount that quickly.

So I think waiting for the headlines is always a challenge with investing.

In terms of slowing growth, I would also agree this is the real risk because higher oil prices are a regressive tax, meaning that that is a tax on everyone up and down, really the global economy.

It's not just Americans.

It's everyone.

And, you know, the point I would make about a regressive tax around oil, I think it's interesting because I think COVID really shaped people's reshape people's view on what costs were tolerable because the inflation was just so egregious.

I mean, we had the highest inflation since 1980.

And when I think about how people tolerated that, I mean, I think it's been kind of amazing as an equity investor, but also, um, as I look at how just the, uh, the consumer dealt with higher inflation from hamburgers to cars, to houses, and everyone thought that that was going to push the economy into a weaker position and it ended up being much more resilient.

So my expectation is that this time, because in it, because consumers are, um,

I think, better equipped to deal with the inflationary effects that they learned from COVID.

I think that this could actually not be a mechanism that slows the economy quite as much.

I think the real question, in my mind, tying back to the Fed, is, okay,

You've got hot inflation and you've got shock inflation.

And those are two very different things.

One is demand driven, one is supply driven.

What I mean by that is right now we have supply driven inflation on the oil side.

Back in 2007, 2008,

Oil was ripping because emerging markets were ripping.

China was getting ready for the Olympics.

You know, they couldn't get enough, you know, coking steel from Canada to build bridges, highways.