John Mowrey

So that was a very different type of oil spike that we saw when Goldman came out and called for it to go to 200 back, I believe, in 2008.

This is supply driven.

And the question to me is, will the Fed look through a supply shock?

Because to Rob's point, if anything, there's a tax on the consumer.

So you make the case that actually you need to lower rates even more, even though the CPI might tick off, because this is not because the economy is running hot.

It's because you're taxing all of the global consumers around the world.

No, that's, I mean, look, that's the right logical, uh, sequence.

The, the, uh, the fly in the ointment though, is what is the duration of elevated oil prices?

And so that's what's going on, right?

That's, that's why, I mean, there's, there's pain points globally with what's going on with, uh, the strait.

because of the 20% supply that goes through it.

I mean, we don't buy any oil from Iran.

China is the one that buys all the oil from Iran, I think 80% or plus.

So this isn't about getting oil from Iran.

This is about the global supply network, which ironically is very similar to what the tariffs were about.

That was global supply network.

And ironically, that was very much what COVID was about.

That was the shutting off of global supply networks.

And so Americans are getting a real taste of what globalization did in terms of supply chain management.

I think that the way you have to navigate this, though, is there are going to be companies that are able to pass through inflation easier than others.