John R. Miles

But as we heard from Alex Emus yesterday,

The reality of a life of significance is that it requires the courage to let things set.

It requires us to move from the fluid maybe of our 20s and 30s to the solid, uncompromising, this is who I am of an intentional life.

But right here in the middle of the setting process, we encounter a psychological trap that ruins more structures than we care to admit.

It's the concept Alex and I dove into, the winner's curse.

Imagine you're standing on the floor of a high-stakes auction.

The item up for bid is something you've wanted for years.

A stone you believe will finally complete your wall.

You've done your research, but the moment the bidding starts, the atmosphere changes.

The energy in the room spikes.

You see your peers raising their paddles.

You feel the heat of competition.

Suddenly, the goal shifts.

You're no longer trying to acquire something of value.

You are simply trying to win.

When the gavel finally falls and the room goes quiet, you feel that surge of adrenaline.

You won.

But as Alex explained, in a world of uncertainty, the winner is almost always the person who made the largest estimation error.

You didn't win because you knew more.

You won because you were willing to overpay more than anyone else.