John Sindreu
speaker
195 appearances
4 recordings
1 series
first heard Feb 2018
last heard Mar 2019
John Sindreu’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
Of course, there is the counter-argument, which some investors have been making, which is, yes, but maybe passing an infrastructure bill, which is another of the presidential promises of the Republican campaign, will be easier because there is a lot of Republican congressmen who are not eager to increase government spending, and Democrats will be.
But I think we should sort of take that risk or take that possibility and offset it against, you know, the fact that probably there'll be less tax cuts.
And I think the balance of those two sort of tells us that it's likely that the amount of fiscal stimulus, which we can measure by the budget deficit, will be lower going forward, not only because there is some disagreements between how that infrastructure will be built, whether it would be sort of, you know, direct garment spending or private contracts,
but also because, and this is the interesting thing here, since Ronald Reagan, Republicans have actually been way more prone to, you know, loosening the fiscal spigots than Democrats have been.
Counter to the rhetoric that they very often use, for example, in 2011, Paul Ryan was very concerned about the national debt, and so were many Republicans.
But it turns out that, you know, when they're in power, that does not translate to actual policy.
And for markets, you know, fiscal stimulus has been really good, and probably for the economy as well.
We see increases in growth.
We see increases in productivity.
We see lower unemployment.
There's the argument out there that this could be a sugar rush, but I personally think that very often we sort of underestimate how the impact of higher demand is actually not just good for growth right now, but it can also impulse, you know, higher productivity growth going forth.
Yes.
And markets are trying to divine this.
And it is, I think, an underappreciated concern in their minds because we talk a lot about the Fed.
We talk about global growth maybe slowing a little bit.
I do think that there is the fear that, you know, we've been growing for a decade and this is almost unprecedented or it's very long by historical standards.
And there is no reason to believe that the U.S.
economy will do worse.
But, you know, there's always that feeling of saying, hey, I'm looking at the calendar here and wouldn't it be time for a recession right now?
And that is, I think, that concern that markets are growingly, painfully aware of.
Showing 61–80 of 195 · page 4 of 10
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