Jon Lovett

That to me is like but the only way that makes sense is if Trump is someone who only thinks short term

and discounts the cost of everyone thinking he's a liar in the future.

But that's what he does.

Trump is only a rational actor in the very short term.

And so I think that's how you kind of can make sense of the threats of escalation and the promise of negotiation.

Yeah, we also just...

Everyone involved in this is a egomaniac liar.

So it's just like it's hard to know what's really happening because they're also negotiating in public.

Right.

Like we know some of the states that the terms of the negotiation tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, uranium enrichment, what have you.

Right.

Like we've heard.

Well, it's like a game of chicken, except we've already rammed the cars into each other.

It's like, I don't know what you were just yelling at each other across two blown airbags.

It's fucking it's really it's really bad.

So, just trying to see the other side of this, take the same incentives in reverse.

Iran has to say that the US and global markets will pay a very high price for the conflict continuing, that Iran will endure a long-term conflict, and Trump's threats of escalation are not effective leverage.

you would do this while underplaying negotiations while signaling with actions that you actually do prefer a deal.

Because for the same reason, Trump wants to claim negotiations are ongoing in case he escalates.

Iran wants to say there are no negotiations so they can blame Trump if he does decide to go after Karg Island.