Jonathan McMenamin
speaker
81 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jun 2026
last heard 24 Jun
Jonathan McMenamin’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 1.
Appearances
Look, I don't think we should be particularly worried about house prices in a sort of longer term sense.
House prices have continued to rise for a very long period of time.
And you'd have to be a pretty brave soul to bet against the Australian housing market over a long run perspective.
But what we are seeing right now is a short-term cyclical downturn, something similar to other downturns that we have seen more recently.
If we look back at 2023, we saw quite a major downturn in Sydney and Melbourne during that period of time.
And again, in 2019, quite a large downturn occurring then post the Banking Royal Commission.
This sort of downturn that we're looking at now is probably a little smaller than both of those fairly recent downturns.
And what we know is that after both of those downturns, we continue to see pretty strong price growth in Sydney in particular.
So we would expect a recovery on the other side.
So no need to panic at this point.
It has a lot to do with both of those.
We would say that the lift in interest rates that you've seen after three rate cuts last year, we've had three rate hikes this year, in quite a quick
succession, both in February, March, and now more recently in May, that has taken a lot of the steam out of the most leveraged property markets.
And that is largely Sydney, and then in many cases, Melbourne, particularly the top tier housing markets.
in Melbourne as well.
And that is slowing those property markets pretty quickly.
We'd say about 60% of the correction that we've seen to date, probably a little more than that, has to do with those interest rate changes alone.
Beyond that, we are saying that there is a drag coming through from the budget and those tax changes for investors is a big reason for that.
But another is that the negative sentiment that has taken hold since that budget has amplified the effect, we think, in the short term within the property market.
We think it's a little overdone given that these tax changes only affect investors.
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