Joris Bekkers

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119 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 16 Jul

Joris Bekkers’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Odd Lots · Why Soccer Analytics Works Like Volatility Arbitrage Trading · 16 Jul 2026 podcast

The coach is fed just the information that the analyst finds from the data.

And that could be, in the end, that generally still boils down to having video clips.

So you can use the data to find video, and then you can show the video to the coach, which then, from bottom up, you have this approach.

Yeah, so the model output could be many things.

It could be outputs from a classification model that says in this given 10 second or 15 or 20 second window, this team played in this sort of buildup or they had this type of structure.

It could also be a little bit more advanced where you can simply say, well, in this instance, we had a high probability of conceding a

and that could be just from an expected goal shot if you're looking at only event data, but you could also have model outputs from something we call an expected possession value model or an expected trend model where you measure the chance that the team is going to score in, let's say, the next 30 seconds or the next possession, and then you can find the spikes there and either measure when your team is likely to concede or measure when the other team is likely to score.

And you can use those kind of signals to boil it down to video.

Apparently, most of this does not happen live.

So most of it happens either pre-match or post-match, but you can still do it.

There's enough live data to make these instances worthwhile.

There are in-game win probability models which start with just a pre-game team strength.

So both teams have some value.

Perhaps you can think of an ELO rating.

And they boil down to a win, a draw, and a loss percentage.

And then those percentages can in-game be updated, but they won't swing all that much because you have this prior information.

So maybe after the first minute, one team has some XG, or maybe after the first five minutes, let's say, some team has created some high probability chances, and that team might be the underdog team.

This was highly unexpected, I guess, since the ELO rating said that the other team would have the overhand.

So you can slightly update your beliefs there.

I don't think it's like changing the needle or moving the needle all that much, given that it's just five minutes of information.

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