Josh Linville
speaker
128 appearances
2 recordings
2 series
first heard Sep 2024
last heard 23 Mar
Josh Linville’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Mar 2026 with 1.
Appearances
It would be this exact event during this exact time of year.
It doesn't get much worse than what we're dealing with today.
Well, those were demand-driven rallies. Those were both ethanol-based. They boosted corn pricing. And so everything chased after that price on the way up. And then the second all that demand started to fall out and there wasn't anything left, it's flat. It all fell back down to the ground. Guys, this thing has been going on since late 2020, early 21.
We have never seen a high-priced market like we have for this kind of length of time. And it's not just fertilizer. It's grains. It's everything across the board. It was crazy. Kind of easy, kind of exciting. Things were always happening. Every time you picked up the phone, there was some crazy black swan event. It always seemed to help out our situation. Now we're in the great reset.
And great resets never happen because your input prices fall. It's always the other way around. It's always the grain prices go down. Then all the other inputs are like, boy, that stinks. I ain't going to drop my price.
Yep. Back when tobacco was still a little controlled by the government as far as what you could raise and you could actually make money at it.
Yeah. So the role that I have, at the core of it, StoneX is a brokerage firm. So our whole thing is trading futures, trading grain futures, interest rates, currency, fertilizer. And that's what they brought me on, is that fertilizer is kind of an up-and-coming futures market, trading urea, U-A-N-D-A-P. But
Once I kind of started to settle into the role, some of the things that bugged me over 20-plus years started to kind of filter through my head, and that's the lack of information on the fertilizer side. I mean, let's face it. Most of the listeners are probably sitting there with their operations looking. The biggest cost per acre is fertilizer. What do you know the least amount about? Fertilizer.
That's not okay.
kind of took a little bit of the role i'm no longer beholden to like manufacturers or anything like that it's kind of like no we want to get the information out there we want farmers to know a little bit more about what's happening may not change a single thing that they do but understanding that hey china did this and it affected me here and russia did this so that affected me here at least having a little bit better of a sense of what's happening around the world puts another piece of the puzzle in there and if it hate it turns out it helps them buy a
They are. My dad is. My cousin is kind of starting to get into it. My cousin actually graduated from high school, straight out of high school, went to Nebraska, did the John Deere Mechanic School, and came back immediately working up around the St. Joe Atchison area.
and kind of getting into it that's just really not been my bag I've kind of enjoyed this role a little bit more so didn't take over the family farm like I probably should consider but I'm having too much fun doing this but yeah we uh a couple thousand acres up of northwest Missouri just south of St.
Joe and yeah it's no longer tobacco anymore um that's kind of moved on the government stopped the program I got out of the cattle business so my dad could have a little bit more free time but Still doing the row crops.
Huh. You take your leaf bales. and all the companies come in, and they literally just go one by one and auction each one of them off and just go straight up and down the line.
as of about two years ago. Russia. Russia. Guess how many tons they're exporting right now? Zero. Wow. Because their pipeline that they would run down to Odessa, it kind of goes through Ukraine.
And I'm going to guess, I don't know how many times you've studied a war, but the nation that's being invaded isn't real thrilled about letting them use a pipeline to go make money off of an export like that. So that pipeline has been completely shut down. Russia has been trying to build new ports within Russian territory and But it takes a long time to build that stuff. So, yeah, you've got that.
You've got Trinidad production issues. I will say I've gotten that question a lot. Why is it more expensive this year than it was last year? And I'll tell you, last year's price was a gift. And what I mean by that is it was much, much lower than anybody anticipated. It was to the point where I started to hear the price and I called my dad. I was like, hey, dad, how's it going? Yada, yada, yada.
Buy your anhydrous. Well, I don't have a price yet. Buy your anhydrous. well, what price do you think I should buy? I said, buy your anhydride. Take what they tell you and you buy it. When you look at that price versus where the corn was, to your point, it was five plus dollars a bushel. One of the best ratio values we've ever seen in the history of the data that we have.
That's one of the big things we always kind of get into is one of the things we try to educate is I don't like flat prices because every time you see a flat price, it's never low enough. You know, there's not a fertilizer price low enough. There's not a corn price high enough.
Well, it depends on the product. So it depends on if we're talking nitrogen, phosphate, potash. If we're looking at nitrogen, we are a net importer. We don't have enough production here in North America to meet the demand. We still need to import it.
Showing 1–20 of 128 · page 1 of 7
Next →