Jules van Binsbergen

speaker

478 appearances 6 recordings 1 series first heard Jun 2026 last heard 13 Aug

Jules van Binsbergen’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 6 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 3.

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All Else Equal: Making Better Decisions · Rerun: Ep73 “The Dangers of Group Think on Decision Making” with Adi Sunderam · 13 Aug 2026 podcast

Welcome to our summer series, where we are highlighting past episodes. matched

We selected these episodes because the topics we discuss are still as relevant today as they were when we first aired them. matched

Thank you for growing with us year after year. matched

Now please enjoy this episode of All Else Equal, Making Better Business Decisions. matched

Welcome to the Lauder Institute at the University of Pennsylvania. matched

I'm Jules Van Binsbergen, Director of the Institute and a finance professor at the Wharton School. matched

Welcome back, everybody. matched

Today we're going to talk about a topic that I think is really important for corporate decision making, or more generally, for human decision making. matched

And it relates very much to what in statistics is called Bayesian updating and the way in which humans in the decision making are able to do that properly under various circumstances. matched

So maybe, Jonathan, first we should spend some time. matched

I'm intuitively explaining what Bayesian updating is all about. matched

No, I completely agree with you, Jonathan. matched

And I think that there's some very famous examples, even game show examples, where the optimal thing to do according to Beijing updating is so counterintuitive. matched

So Bayesian updating is really hard. matched

I think a lot of people find probabilities in general quite hard to deal with, right? matched

That is one of the hardest things of decision matched

No, I and Jonathan actually, I think one of the solutions that we need to think about when you are dealing with a decision maker like this is to actually turn the question around. matched

Meaning, if people really believe that, you should ask them the question: give me an example of a piece of information that if I was able to give it to you, it would make you change your mind. matched

Rather than trying to give matched

Give them a lot of pieces of information to convince them that they're wrong about it. matched

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