Justin Drake

So last year, I believe we're talking on the order of $5 billion.

And this is unprecedented.

Previously, we were talking hundreds of millions of dollars.

And I think the culminations of all of these things has really energized the public and led to this narrative, which has indeed potentially impacted the price of Bitcoin and Ether.

Now, projecting into the future, my personal Q Day is in 2032.

This is a little bit of an optimistic take.

in the sense that it's possible they'll arrive a little bit later, but we need to be prepared in some sense for the worst case scenario.

So I'd say there's at least a 1% chance that Q-Day is in 2032, more likely than not double digit percentage that Q-Day is in 2032.

Various experts that are super knowledgeable in the field will tell you somewhere between 2031 and 2038 maybe,

And, you know, one of my friends who's in the industry, Steve Briley, who's the founder and CEO of one of the biggest quantum error correction companies in the world, who happens to be based in Cambridge, where I am, our children went to the same class.

His personal Q day was 2032, but he's had this date for 15 years and it's always stayed the same.

And basically, you just need to extrapolate the exponentials and that's where you end up.

And so what we're trying to do with Ethereum is to make sure that we have everything wrapped up well before 2032.

And my completion date for Ethereum being fully post-quantum secure is 2029.

Yeah, exactly.

So we have this new term called CROC, cryptographically relevant quantum computer.

If you squint a little bit, the Q in the middle becomes an O and it's like a crocodile croc.

Yes, that is when, you know, for us, it becomes relevant.

It's possible that there will be other applications that make quantum computers useful for chemistry or physics, but that will come a bit later.

Has his opinion changed on this?