Kai Risdahl

What it definitely is not going to look like is the global oil market rubber banding back to normal overnight.

What it definitely is not going to look like is the global oil market rubber banding back to normal overnight.

So we asked Marketplace's Elizabeth Troval to play out our short-term economic future.

So we asked Marketplace's Elizabeth Troval to play out our short-term economic future.

The bigger question facing the global economy is what will the status of the strait be?

The bigger question facing the global economy is what will the status of the strait be?

Will volumes recover to such an extent that goods can come and go the way that they were before?

Will volumes recover to such an extent that goods can come and go the way that they were before?

What kinds of risks will still exist?

What kinds of risks will still exist?

The strait will still take months to clear if Iran even wants it to be open.

The strait will still take months to clear if Iran even wants it to be open.

And then on top of that, you have refinery damage, pipeline damage and production shut-ins.

And then on top of that, you have refinery damage, pipeline damage and production shut-ins.

It's very unlikely that the price of crude drops below $80 a barrel at any point in 2026, both due to the size of the physical disruption that's taken place and the ongoing risk premia stemming from the uncertainty.

It's very unlikely that the price of crude drops below $80 a barrel at any point in 2026, both due to the size of the physical disruption that's taken place and the ongoing risk premia stemming from the uncertainty.

The timing it takes to get back to normal and to rebuild those drawn-down inventories and to get all the oil where it needs to be is really challenging.

The timing it takes to get back to normal and to rebuild those drawn-down inventories and to get all the oil where it needs to be is really challenging.

So we're going to be dealing with this through the summer driving season into the fall.

So we're going to be dealing with this through the summer driving season into the fall.