Karen Finerman
speaker
87 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Apr 2025
last heard Apr 2025
Karen Finerman’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
And so now I did not know that. Where do you live in the Palisades? Where do you live?
Well, the de minimis is eight hundred dollars. That's what a shipment, anything below $800. So I actually don't know if you aggregate for more than $800. Maybe there's a way around it.
Well, it's interesting to the extent that any of that is about luxury high end goods. If I were Louis Vuitton and that were one of my suppliers, I would be very, very unhappy. So unhappy that I might look for another supplier. So if that is part of their game plan, I think that part is going to end up being very problematic.
But for other things, I know these manufacturers are just carpet-bobbing TikTok. Every 40 seconds, yeah.
No, I actually was a little surprised that American Express was good because I would have thought the correlation between the LVMH consumer and American Express was high and that Louis Vuitton in the U.S. was amiss. In Asia, it was a disaster, but it was a miss, meaning, well, they were expecting for, it was about four percentage points low on same-store sales, or comps, rather.
And so that's a miss, and I would have thought AXP would, that customer would overlap directly, and that wasn't the case.
That's not been a good one for me, but I look at LVMH versus Kering, for example. So you have two conglomerates, each has extraordinary brands. Kering has really struggled with Gucci. And that is the main driver of their business. And it's just been a disaster for a couple of years. So, I mean, we're talking about like revenues down 20. Revenues. That's enormous.
And so to me, that would fall in the, oh, we might have a material change here in that a couple of things. Something happened about two years ago that I really didn't like and made me sell my stock in Caring, which was the CEO, who's married to Salma Hayek, the actress, bought CAA, took control of Creative Artists Agency. And I hate acquisitions like that that are a huge distraction.
And it sort of really shows sort of taking your eye off the ball. And coincidentally, that was when this sort of all the pent-up demand and spend from the pandemic was starting to wane. And so for all of the luxury houses, that was sort of weighing on them. But caring is, you know, pretty levered. And so that distraction, I thought, was really not a good sign.
So one thing about Bernard Arnault, he is all in. He is engaged all the time.
Yeah. And so I don't know if I don't know why you bought it. I don't know. I assume she's represented that, I guess. So I really didn't like that. And I thought, all right, if I'm going to have exposure in that area, I'd rather have LVMH.
I think Amazon is really attractive now. It hasn't traded here at this level. So I like to look at PE, assuming a balance sheet's fine, which their balance sheet is, it's, Very good. It's not as good as Alphabet, but it's very, very, very good. That's not an issue in any way at all. It's a positive.
So I think we haven't had a chance to buy a business like this, AWS, which I don't know if you saw on CNBC, Andrew Sorkin's interview with Andrew Jassy last week. And he talked about AI as the most transformative thing. They are not slowing down. their AI business. And like what they saw as the opportunity in cloud, maybe a decade ago. This is what they think the opportunity is now.
The margins in that business are gigantic. And then they have this extraordinary retail business. And so together you're trading, it's trading at about 28 times earnings. It hasn't been here probably ever in its entire history. So that's one that I've been adding to that I like.
Right. Well, for you guys, that must be all the time, every day.
I don't know. I think it's 50-50. The thing that's so unusual about this particular time is that it seems to be a self-inflicted wound, right? That I think we could get out of this fairly quickly if we had some clarity. The market hates uncertainty. So even bad news with certainty is better than vague uncertainty with no news. So it's hard to know.
Could the president just switch strategy and say, all right, we've got 15% across the board. That's it. That's the deal around the world. I think the market would rally tremendously. But I'm also not optimistic that that will happen in the short term.
What is covering? So if I'm short Q's against a portfolio that has exposure to the max seven, I'll buy some back. So I bought some back. Often I own puts that are, I'm not looking to buy puts that start to make money right if the market goes down right from the the point that I buy them. I'm looking at it as protection if the market goes down 5% or more, that kind of move.
So what I think of is sort of insurance with a high deductible. I'm going to take some pain the first 5% down before that hedge really starts to kick in. It'll start to move, but it won't. It'll really kick in the lower it goes. And when you own those and the market's going down, you're like, oh, thank God I own these puts. That's the time to sell them.
It's hard to do, but almost always it's the right thing.
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