Karim Sadjadpour

speaker

58 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Aug 2026 last heard 4 Aug

Karim Sadjadpour’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 1.

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Making Sense · Geopolitics vs. markets: How might the US, China and Iran reshape global risk? · 4 Aug 2026 podcast

So we're speaking today, Joyce, on July 22nd.

I would say the two key things that I'm looking at that could impact global energy markets.

Number one is indeed the Bab al-Mandab, which is that key corridor from the Red Sea where Saudi Arabia has been exporting most of its oil.

And the Houthis up until now, the Houthis are Iran's Yemeni proxy.

Sometimes Iran has threatened to close the Bab al-Mandab, but the Houthis haven't acted.

And there's various speculations why that's been the case.

It's been said that the Saudis are maybe paying Houthi salaries.

But in the last few days, the Houthis have actually threatened that they are going to close the Bab al-Mandab.

And so that would instantly remove 5% to 7% of global supply of oil.

That's, I think, 5 to 7 million barrels a day on any given day.

And so that would immediately have an impact.

If the Houthis were to attempt to do that, that could trigger military action by whether it's Saudi Arabia, Israel, or the United States.

So that is one potential shock to keep focused on.

The second potential shock is if indeed

President Trump makes good on his recent threats to resume military action against Iran.

We should expect Iranian retaliations, and oftentimes how Iran will choose to retaliate is at oil and gas installations throughout the Persian Gulf, specifically to spike global oil prices.

So I think these are meaningful possibilities in the next weeks.

And given that Iran is not showing any willingness to compromise either on giving up the Strait of Hormuz or make meaningful nuclear compromises, I think that is a decent possibility that President Trump will return to military action and the Iranians will likely choose to retaliate.

At the moment, Joyce, I don't see any correlation between the negotiations that U.S.

negotiators have been having with Iranians, which they say have sometimes been productive, and they've said that Iran's senior Revolutionary Guard commanders are starting to rethink the last 47 years of revolutionary ideology and hostility toward the United States.

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